#我在Gate广场过新年 Is the plunge in the crypto market the end or an opportunity?

From late January to early February 2026, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rollercoaster half-month. Bitcoin fell below $60,000, and amid extreme panic, the market underwent a thorough reshuffle. Crypto assets led by Bitcoin experienced a "waterfall decline," and fear was pervasive. But the core reason for this storm wasn’t a problem with cryptocurrencies themselves or related to the industry; it was purely a combination of external factors that hit the market hard, delivering a "combo punch" that left investors stunned. Today, let’s clarify the reasons for the decline, the future trend, and what to do next—all in one go.

01 The Trigger: Sudden Tightening of Liquidity in the U.S.
The root cause of this crash directly points to internal volatility in the U.S. At the end of January, the U.S. government faced a short-term shutdown due to the House of Representatives not passing the spending bill. Liquidity is the lifeline of financial markets, and as funds receded, cryptocurrencies—being high-risk assets—were hit hardest. Notably, there are subtle variables behind the background of Wosh’s nomination by Trump; his policies may not be purely hawkish.

02 Main Selling Pressure: Massive Institutional Withdrawals
In just two weeks, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows reached $2.8 billion. January became one of the most intense months of institutional selling, with ETF assets shrinking by 31% from their October peak last year. Large-scale selling by institutions not only created significant selling pressure but also sent a strong bearish signal to retail investors, triggering a herd mentality and causing a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing price declines.

03 Deadly Accelerator: Chain Reaction of Margin Liquidations
High leverage trading was the most lethal driver of this crash. Many investors speculated with borrowed money, aiming for big gains with small capital, and suffered devastating losses: $1.7 billion in forced liquidations across the network within 24 hours, with $1.57 billion from bullish investors. Bitcoin and Ethereum liquidations alone reached $769 million and $417 million, respectively, leaving countless investors wiped out overnight. The passive selling from forced liquidations created a vicious cycle: more liquidations led to more sell-offs, causing prices to plummet further, which in turn triggered more liquidations, pushing the decline to its peak. Essentially, this crash was caused by excessive speculation and leverage liquidations, triggering an irreversible chain of negative feedback.

04 Macro Environment: Global Risk Assets Under Pressure
The crypto decline was not an isolated event but occurred against a backdrop of widespread pressure on global risk assets. Traditional safe-haven assets also suffered: gold plummeted 15% in a single day—the largest drop in over four decades; silver tumbled 32% in one day, marking a historic sell-off. Tech stocks also weakened. Microsoft’s Azure cloud revenue missed expectations, dragging down the entire AI sector, and the Nasdaq index declined consecutively. Investors, amid uncertainty, chose to "cash out," reducing holdings across stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies. Due to their high volatility, cryptocurrencies experienced particularly sharp declines.

05 Clouds of Uncertainty: Regulation and Geopolitics
Regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions added extra "uncertainty taxes" to an already fragile market, dampening capital inflows. The U.S. imposed sanctions on crypto exchanges related to Iran, while Hong Kong introduced new stablecoin regulations. While "long-term," clear regulation is beneficial for industry health, in the short term, the market widely interprets these signals as tightening regulation.

06 Psychological Impact: Fear Spreading and Industry Infighting
Adding to the pain, the industry’s trauma from last October’s "black swan" crash—when over $19 billion in derivatives liquidations occurred in a single day, setting a record—has not yet healed. This recent crash was another heavy blow. After the October event, doubts within the industry never ceased, and with this decline, industry insiders shifted focus from "deepening industry development and creating next-gen products" to "blame-shifting and finger-pointing." No one was paying attention to long-term growth anymore; everyone was preoccupied with "who is responsible for this crash." Under internal strife, industry confidence further collapsed.

07 Market Outlook: Opportunity in Crisis
This is undoubtedly the most pressing concern for investors. The key variable: Wosh’s appointment, which will determine the future direction. For the market trend, especially in Q1-Q2, the most critical factor is Kevin Wosh’s policy stance after becoming Federal Reserve Chair—based on Bitcoin’s development logic, waiting for Wosh to officially take office and clarifying his policy orientation is far more important than panicking blindly or following the crowd. The market generally views Wosh as hawkish; his support for a strong dollar and balance sheet reduction could be unfavorable for cryptocurrencies and even suppress the entire financial market. This isn’t without reason, but many overlook a crucial point: Wosh was nominated by Trump, which hints at subtle policy variables. From a macroeconomic perspective, Wosh’s rise is likely to break from previous policy frameworks and become a new economic driver, which could create new opportunities for the crypto market. Many are now panicking, thinking prices could fall even lower, and with most holdings gone—perhaps it’s time to release greed in the current space. Opportunities in the industry often appear suddenly.

08 Key Advice: Stay Rational Amid Panic
Historical experience shows that extreme panic often presents a "long-term positioning window." For investors capable of handling high risk, the current market offers a chance to review and allocate core crypto assets at lower costs. As Bitcoin fluctuates between $58,000 and $70,000, the market is deeply divided. Some see this as the end of the bubble, while others view it as a deep value correction within a cyclical pattern.