Ethereum this week: Are the crypto winter signals confirmed?

This week, Ethereum faces critical moments that go beyond simple weekend movements. Currently, with ETH trading at $2.10K, we are seeing a series of technical indicators that raise concerns among analysts and traders. What is happening is not just a pullback, but a breakdown of structures that could mark the beginning of an extended period of weakness in the crypto market.

The technical breakdown that changed the landscape

The collapse of the support at $2,800 represents much more than just losing a number: it was the breaking of the psychological barrier that separated hope from panic. This breakdown triggered what technical analysts call a “descending triangle,” a chart pattern that historically precedes more pronounced downward movements.

According to current analyses, the next critical resistance level is at $2,500, where the 200-week moving average converges. If that zone does not hold, technical theory suggests ETH could fall toward $2,100. We are talking about an additional drop of approximately 22% from where we are this week.

The indicator that predicted 2018 and 2022

In this crucial week, the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has made a worrying transition: it moved from the “anxiety” zone to the “fear” zone, an orange color that has historically preceded the longest and most painful crypto winters. It was precisely this type of signal that appeared before the crashes of 2018 and 2022, two cycles that left deep scars in the market.

This indicator essentially measures whether most investors are in profit or loss without having liquidated yet. When it reaches these fear zones, the risk of massive capitulation increases significantly.

Moving averages don’t lie

Another concerning symptom observed at this time is the crossover of price averages. The 111-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day moving average, a classic technical signal indicating the dominance of selling pressure. In market language, this means that the bearish momentum has decisively gained ground.

Those holding bullish positions bear the burden of proof, and for now, the arguments to justify a rebound seem insufficient against the market’s accumulated pressure.

Opportunity or warning?

The big question lingering in this volatile week is whether we are facing an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices or if we are witnessing the start of a crypto winter that will force investors to safeguard their resources for an extended period. For now, technical data lean more toward the second scenario than the first.