Wall Street Insights Breakfast FM-Radio | February 10, 2026

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Market Overview

Technology stocks continue to support the rise of US stocks. The three major US indices both closed higher for two consecutive days, with the Dow hitting a new all-time high over two days; among the “Big Seven” tech giants, Microsoft rose over 3%, Nvidia up 2.5%, Apple fell more than 1%; chip indices rose over 1%, outperforming the market, with AMD and Broadcom up over 3%; among AI concept stocks, after CapitalWatch, an institution accused of money laundering, apologized, AppLovin surged 13%; Oracle rose nearly 9.7%; Hims & Hers, sued by Novo Nordisk for producing generic drugs, fell 16%, while Novo Nordisk’s European shares rose over 5%. The pan-European stock index closed at a new all-time high.

Market attention is on the pressure leading UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to resign, with the yield on the 10-year UK bond temporarily rising over 8 basis points. The US dollar index fell for two days to a one-week intraday low; after Sanae Takachi’s victory, Japanese officials warned to closely monitor exchange rate movements, the yen reversed six days of decline, hitting a two-week low intraday before rising over 1%; offshore RMB nearly broke 6.92 intraday for the first time in three years; Bitcoin intraday dropped over 6% from its high, falling below $69,000, then slightly rebounded.

Metals and crude oil rebounded over two days, with crude oil turning positive after a 1.5% intraday decline; gold surged back above $5,000 and rose over 2%, with futures hitting a more than one-week high, silver futures surged nearly 9%; London tin rose over 5%, London copper up over 1%.

During Asian trading hours, the ChiNext index rose 3%, AI applications and CPO soared, photovoltaic stocks hit limit-up, Hengke Index rose 1%, and Lankang Technology’s IPO gained over 60% on its first day.

News Highlights

China

General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee: Building a modern socialist country depends critically on technological independence and self-reliance.

Overseas

Bacent: The Federal Reserve may not shrink its balance sheet rapidly; report: after Wosh took office, the Fed, after 75 years, will reach an agreement with the US Treasury, clarifying the scale of its balance sheet to coordinate debt issuance, shifting holdings from short-term to long-term bonds, with Bacent supporting limits on QE.

Before the key non-farm payroll report, the White House issued a “precaution”: Hasset hinted that employment growth was below expectations.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takachi: Will not issue deficit bonds to fund consumption tax cuts.

UK government: Core officials embroiled in Epstein scandal, cabinet ministers collectively oppose “pressuring” Sunak to resign, UK stocks, bonds, and currencies briefly declined simultaneously.

Altman: ChatGPT growth has “recovered to over 10%”, planning to launch a new model this week.

Alphabet: Raising $20 billion in USD bonds, originally planned for $15 billion, issuing 100-year GBP bonds, the first tech company in nearly 30 years to do so.

EU: Antitrust lawsuit against Meta: Proposed to force WhatsApp to open up, strictly prohibiting blocking third-party AI competitors.

SpaceX: Major shift. Musk changed his stance: Mars is too far, the Moon is faster, and a “lunar city” will be built within ten years.

Novo Nordisk: Weight-loss drug ads deemed “false or misleading” by FDA, stock hit a daily low; Novo Nordisk sued producer of generic Wegovy, Hims & Hers, which under regulatory pressure retracted its low-cost generic weight-loss plan, with stock nearly down 30%.

Market Close

US and European stocks: S&P 500 up 0.47%, at 6964.82; Dow up 0.04%, at 50135.87; Nasdaq up 0.90%, at 23238.67. European STOXX 600 rose 0.70%, at 621.41, closing at a new record high.

A-shares: Shanghai Composite up 1.41%, at 4123.09. Shenzhen Component up 2.17%, at 14208.44. ChiNext up 2.98%, at 3332.77.

Bond markets: At market close, the US 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.20%, down about 1 basis point intraday; the 2-year yield was about 3.49%, also down about 1 basis point.

Commodities: WTI March crude futures rose 1.27%, to $64.36/barrel. Brent April crude futures rose 1.45%, to $69.04/barrel. COMEX April gold futures up 2%, at $5079.4/oz. COMEX March silver futures up 6.94%, at $82.234/oz. LME copper rose 1.4%, at $13,176/ton. LME tin up about 5.1%, at $49,098/ton.

Details of Key News

Global Highlights

China

The General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee: Building a modern socialist country depends critically on technological independence and self-reliance. He emphasized leveraging our country’s strengths in mobilizing resources for major projects, gathering high-quality elements to tackle key issues, accelerating solving prominent shortfalls, and achieving strategic goals.

Overseas

Bacent: The Federal Reserve may not shrink its balance sheet rapidly. US Treasury Secretary Bacent stated that even if Wosh becomes Fed Chair, balance sheet reduction will not proceed quickly, possibly requiring a year-long assessment, and emphasized that if shifting to a “ample reserves” mechanism, the Fed would need to maintain a large-scale asset-liability profile. This indicates that under the Trump administration’s goal to lower mortgage rates, the Fed will remain cautious, prioritizing financial stability over aggressive tightening.

Wosh’s support has far-reaching impact! After 75 years, the Fed is again reaching an agreement with the US Treasury? Reports suggest the core of the agreement includes: clarifying the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, coordinating with the Treasury’s debt issuance plans; shifting holdings from long-term bonds to short-term Treasury bills; Treasury Secretary Bacent supports limiting quantitative easing (QE). This could impact the $30 trillion bond market but raises concerns about the loss of central bank independence, rising inflation expectations, and the dollar’s attractiveness.

Before the major non-farm payroll report, the White House issued a “preemptive warning”: Hasset hinted that employment growth was below expectations. Hasset attributed this trend to slowing population growth and a surge in productivity. He pointed out that as companies achieve higher output through technological progress and efficiency, the demand for new labor naturally declines. Meanwhile, slowing US population growth further limits labor supply expansion.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takachi: Will not issue deficit bonds to fund consumption tax cuts. After the election, Takachi announced plans to promote nationwide food tax cuts and explicitly pledged not to issue deficit bonds, emphasizing financing through non-tax revenue and subsidies to escape austerity, aiming for a “responsible and proactive fiscal policy.” She also plans to visit the US next month for talks with Trump to strengthen alliances and promote advanced technology investments.

• Takachi’s concession led markets to temporarily believe, with Japanese stocks and yen rising! Despite her promise not to support tax cuts with deficit bonds and her emphasis on fiscal discipline, amid high debt, inflation pressures, and exchange rate constraints, fiscal and monetary policy space narrows. Any expenditure without funding sources could quickly trigger negative reactions in bonds and forex markets.

UK: Stocks, bonds, and currencies all declined! Core officials embroiled in Epstein scandal, cabinet ministers collectively oppose “pressuring” Sunak to resign. After appointing Peter Mandelson, involved in Epstein case, as US ambassador, Sunak’s core team resigned within 24 hours, with ministers privately demanding his resignation or threatening to quit, questioning whether Sunak can hold on this week. The pound hit its lowest since January 22, and UK 10-year bond yields approached November’s high. Hedge funds are heavily betting on further weakening of the pound via options, with EUR/GBP options trading volume reaching a 2019 high.

Altman: ChatGPT growth “has recovered to over 10%”, planning to launch a new model this week. Altman told employees on Slack that ChatGPT is “once again achieving over 10% monthly growth.” The user base of Codex, their coding product, increased about 50% over the past week, directly competing with Anthropic’s Claude Code.

Alphabet: Raising $20 billion in USD bonds, originally planned for $15 billion, issuing 100-year GBP bonds, the first tech company in nearly 30 years to do so. Alphabet plans to issue multi-term bonds to support its massive AI infrastructure investments. This financing comes as tech giants are expected to spend over $650 billion this year on AI expansion, with the industry locking in long-term capital. Alphabet is issuing bonds in Switzerland and the UK for the first time. GBP bonds range from 3 to 100 years, marking the first issuance of a century-long bond by a tech company since Motorola in 1997. The UK market, driven by pension funds and insurers, is favored for long-term financing.

EU: Antitrust lawsuit against Meta: Proposed to force WhatsApp to open up, strictly prohibiting blocking third-party AI competitors. The EU accuses Meta of abusing its market dominance by restricting access to WhatsApp API to stifle AI competitors. Regulators plan to impose interim measures requiring Meta to keep the platform open during investigations to prevent permanent market disruption. Meta counters that the intervention lacks basis. This demonstrates the EU’s tough stance on antitrust, setting boundaries for AI regulation and curbing tech giants’ platform advantages to suppress competition.

SpaceX: Major strategic shift! Musk changed his tune: Mars is too far, the Moon is faster, and a “lunar city” will be built within ten years. Moving from “direct to Mars” and aiming for a lunar landing in 2027, Musk’s strategic pivot is significant. The once romantic “Moon is a distraction” enthusiast now turns pragmatic, saying SpaceX has shifted focus to building a lunar city, expected within ten years, while Mars travel remains over 20 years away.

Novo Nordisk: Weight-loss drug ads deemed “false or misleading” by FDA, stock hit a daily low. The FDA wrote to Novo Nordisk stating that their ads implied Wegovy oral tablets are superior to other GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and positioned the drug as a solution for broader lifestyle challenges rather than a treatment for specific diseases, with no supporting data. The stock, which surged over 7%, was briefly up less than 3%.

• Novo Nordisk also announced on Monday that it sued telemedicine company Hims & Hers, producer of generic Wegovy, for patent infringement, marking the first patent lawsuit over semaglutide. Hims & Hers, under regulatory pressure, retracted its low-cost generic weight-loss plan, easing market fears of GLP-1 drugs being replaced by cheap generics.

Selected Opinions

What does Seedance 2.0 mean for AI applications? China Securities believes that Seedance 2.0, centered on multimodal referencing, lens consistency, audio-video synchronization, and automatic storyboarding, significantly enhances controllability and stability in AI video generation, moving from “gacha-style experimentation” to scalable production. The usability rate exceeds 90%, drastically reducing video production costs and time, accelerating applications in short dramas, animation, and e-commerce. In a low-market sentiment environment, Seedance 2.0 could be a key catalyst for restoring confidence in AI multimodal applications and industry chain sentiment.

• At 3 a.m., I completely lost sleep: Seedance 2.0 tells us that the “compression” of AI into real-world workflows is accelerating. For the first time in a year, I was kept awake by AI advances. I believe, the change AI is bringing to the world is speeding up.

The biggest misconception about “quantum computing”: it’s still “too early”. Market mistakenly believes quantum computing is “the next decade’s thing,” but Barclays warns that 2026/2027 will see the decisive moment of “quantum advantage.” The key logic is: quantum computing will not replace classical CPUs and GPUs; instead, due to its high error correction needs, each quantum computer requires massive GPU support. Quantum tech could create an additional market exceeding $100 billion for giants like Nvidia.

Software stocks’ premiums have fallen to the lowest since the financial crisis. Goldman Sachs: Don’t rush to buy! Goldman Sachs states that the current market concern is not short-term profit collapse but whether the profit structure faces systemic compression in the medium to long term. The current correction in software stocks is more like the first half of a revaluation process, with profit margins still high, consensus EPS not yet reflecting potential competitive impacts, and valuation compression used to digest uncertainty. Sustainable stock rebounds often occur after earnings expectations bottom out and begin to recover.

• Citigroup: The crisis in US software stocks is not over, and AI impact could wipe out one-third of terminal value. Citigroup notes that the plunge in software stocks stems from re-evaluating the terminal value amid “AI disruption.” Stock prices already reflect a 10-20% compression in terminal P/E ratios; a 30% compression or return to 2023 lows is possible. Short-term rebound may occur, but the industry-wide rally will end, leading to fierce stock differentiation, requiring careful assessment of AI integration capabilities.

Is storage shortage still underestimated? Goldman Sachs: Significantly raise supply-demand gap expectations, limited impact of price increases on demand! The most severe storage chip shortage ever is coming! Goldman Sachs raised expectations for tight supply-demand, warning that by 2026, DRAM will face its largest 15-year gap, and NAND shortages will hit record levels. Explosive demand from AI servers accounts for over half of DRAM supply. Analysts warn that even with sharp declines in smartphone and PC demand, strong server demand can absorb shocks and maintain tight market conditions. Surprisingly, while issuing this bullish storage report, Goldman Sachs downgraded Micron to neutral, with a target price of $235, citing “most positives already priced in.”

Foreign capital’s hypocrisy! “Complaining during the day, buying wildly at night”—how long can this “hot money” boom in the US last? From tariffs and Greenland ambitions to blatant disregard for the old global order, polls show global favorability towards the US is plummeting. Yet, despite worsening opinions, funds continue to pour in at unprecedented speeds, with foreign investors injecting about $1.6 trillion into US financial assets last year, nearly $700 billion into stocks, both hitting record highs. From Singapore to Seoul, investors staying up late for US stock after-hours trading has become routine, with foreign holdings of US stocks reaching a record 15%, a 50% increase over ten years.

Will tariff transmission and the “January effect” push US January CPI higher? Wall Street expects US core CPI month-over-month in January to rebound to about 0.3% due to the “January effect” and tariff transmission, with goods prices rising due to price adjustments and tariffs. But the key is whether service sector inflation slows; if weaker than seasonal, it could ease the Fed’s concerns about inflation stickiness. Despite short-term data disturbances and upside risks, many institutions believe that if early-year inflation remains below expectations, it will strengthen the case for rate cuts; long-term, inflation is expected to peak in spring and gradually decline.

Domestic Macro

The Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with auto companies: optimizing the implementation of old-for-new car policies, launching pilot reforms in auto circulation consumption, and improving industry management systems. Sheng Qiuping stated that by 2026, the Ministry will work with relevant departments to support policies and reforms, integrating existing measures and new policies, to optimize old-for-new car programs, pilot auto circulation reforms, and improve industry management, to expand and upgrade auto consumption.

Seven departments: issued administrative guidance on employment for 16 companies including Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale, JD.com Seconds, Shansong, SF Express Same City, Hema, and Didi. The meeting required these companies to fully implement employment responsibilities, improve labor management, and effectively protect the rights of new employment form workers.

Domestic Companies

Zijin Mining plans to reach 130-140 tons of gold production by 2028, nearly 30% higher! Zijin Mining raised its 2028 mineral gold production target by nearly 30%, aiming to rank among the top three globally; also significantly increased lithium capacity plans, with a 2026 lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) target of 120,000 tons, and 270,000–320,000 tons by 2028. According to preliminary calculations, the company’s 2025 revenue is expected to be 345 billion yuan, up about 28% from 2022; net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at 51–52 billion yuan, an increase of about 155–160%.

Overseas Companies

Microsoft’s ratings have been downgraded twice within a week, with warnings on AI-related risks. Melius Research downgraded Microsoft due to concerns over capital expenditure and its Copilot-branded products. Last week, Stifel also issued a similar downgrade, with analysts warning about growth concerns in Microsoft Azure cloud services.

Industry/Concepts

1. Robotics | According to China National Radio, China’s first national standard for electric vehicle charging robots, “Robot Performance Specifications and Testing Methods Part 8: Electric Vehicle Charging Robots,” has recently begun drafting. Led by State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, this standard will fill the testing standard gap in China, marking a major progress in the standardization of electric vehicle intelligent charging technology, and will provide a “Chinese solution” for global EV charging infrastructure upgrades.

Comment: Analysts believe this is China’s first national standard for EV charging robots, involving two strategic emerging industries: electric vehicles and robotics. As new energy vehicle ownership continues to rise, insufficient charging infrastructure has become a bottleneck. Charging robots effectively address issues like fixed locations and complex operations of traditional charging piles. The industry is transitioning from technical validation to large-scale commercial use. With the proliferation of autonomous driving and EV penetration, the charging robot industry is expected to enter an explosive growth phase.

2. Theatre Industry | The Propaganda Department of the CPC Central Committee and four other departments jointly issued the “Three-Year Action Plan for the Revitalization of Drama (2026–2028).” The plan proposes to enhance innovation and creativity in drama, significantly improve production quality, and launch excellent works to expand dissemination. It encourages using traditional media like radio, TV, and film to promote drama art, supports technological empowerment in creation and dissemination, and advocates for internet, AI, and new tech to broaden reach and influence, guiding troupes and actors in online performances and live streaming.

Comment: Analysts see the drama industry shifting from “ticket revenue economy” to “ecosystem economy.” With policy support, technological empowerment, and cultural tourism integration, China’s drama market is growing steadily. By 2025, the industry’s market size is expected to surpass 80 billion yuan, with annual growth over 10%. As cultural consumption upgrades and audiences’ aesthetic standards rise, demand is becoming more diverse, with young professionals, cultural enthusiasts, students, and tourists becoming main consumers. Technology is profoundly changing the development model of the industry. Future trends include deeper integration of online and offline, and new applications like VR and AR in stage performances, enriching artistic expression and audience experience, creating new opportunities for innovation.

3. Energy Storage | According to Sina Finance, the world’s first and largest single-unit compressed air energy storage compressor, developed by the Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and China Storage Energy (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd., has passed third-party testing with CNAS accreditation. Results show the compressor is at an international leading level, marking a major breakthrough in China’s compressed air energy storage technology. It has fully independent intellectual property rights, with over 100% higher single-machine power than existing compressors, significantly lower unit costs, and advantages like high efficiency, high pressure, and wide operational range.

Comment: Analysts believe that compressed air energy storage, as a key support for new power systems, is rapidly moving from pilot demonstration to large-scale application. With ongoing technological improvements and cost reductions, it will play an increasingly important role in renewable energy absorption, grid flexibility, and achieving “dual carbon” goals, potentially becoming a mainstream long-duration storage technology alongside pumped hydro.

4. Commercial Space | According to China Maritime Safety Administration, Qiong Hangjing 18/26, South China Sea, from 0000 on February 10 to 2400 on February 12, operations for rocket maritime recovery will be conducted within a designated sea area enclosed by four points.

Comment: Dongwu Securities believes that the successful launch and orbit insertion of Zhuque-3 at the end of 2025 marks China’s commercial rockets now have reliable capacity. A series of new heavy-lift rockets’ intensive first flights and recovery tests will drive rapid expansion of capacity and satellite launches in 2026, supporting satellite internet, lunar-martian economy, and space tourism. Policy-wise, the “National Space Agency’s Action Plan for High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025–2027)” has been issued, establishing a dedicated commercial space department, and new rules for IPOs of commercial rocket companies like LinkSpace and CAS Space are being implemented. Six companies, including Blue Arrow and CAS Space, are advancing IPOs, reflecting strong policy support. Countries worldwide are actively deploying large-scale satellite constellations, creating opportunities for the industry chain.

5. Rare Earths | According to Baini Yingfu, rare earth product prices are accelerating upward. On February 9, praseodymium-neodymium oxide and metal prices surged 7.59% and 6.27%, respectively. Since the start of the year, praseodymium-neodymium oxide has increased by 34%.

Comment: Analysts believe that on the supply side, January’s praseodymium-neodymium metal output decreased month-over-month, with raw material spot supply tight, leading to production cuts in some regions. February’s output may further decline, and prices are expected to continue rising. The strategic importance of global rare earth resources continues to grow, and the industry is entering a phase of high-quality development. Supply restrictions, combined with policies, are likely to strengthen, while demand from new energy vehicles, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy could drive long-term rapid growth. Institutions forecast that from 2026, the global rare earth supply-demand gap may continue to widen, improving industry profitability.

Upcoming Market Highlights

Xiaomi Chairman Lei Jun will host a live broadcast.

Aichip Yuan Zhi Semiconductor Hong Kong IPO is expected to list on February 10.

EIA releases the Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

US December Retail Sales.

Speeches by Cleveland Fed President Mester and Dallas Fed President Logan.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

Market risks exist; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual user’s specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their circumstances. Investment is at your own risk.