XRP Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement Zone Under Microscope

XRP is currently trading at $1.45, consolidating within a critical Fibonacci retracement support zone. This price action represents a pivotal moment in the weekly Elliott Wave structure, where the fourth wave of a macro impulse originating from the 2022 low appears to be nearing completion. The chart reveals that price is holding firmly within the textbook support band defined by the 0.5 retracement level (Half-Way Back) and the 0.618 level (Golden Zone) — a classic fourth-wave holding pattern that suggests the next leg higher is forming.

Wave Structure and Macro Impulse Pattern

The Elliott Wave framework indicates that XRP has been building a five-wave macro structure since the 2022 lows. The current phase shows overlapping, corrective behavior characteristic of fourth-wave dynamics. As long as price remains supported above the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone, this bullish count maintains validity. The structure suggests we’re preparing for an aggressive Wave (5) move, which would complete the broader impulse sequence.

The Fibonacci Retracement Equation: Support vs. Extension

The Fibonacci retracement levels provide two distinct outcomes. On the upside, the 0.236 macro retracement aligns with a target near $4.50, representing a meaningful advance from current levels. If momentum accelerates beyond this threshold, the structure could extend toward $6.00, suggesting significantly stronger demand. Conversely, these retracement zones act as resistance if the bullish scenario falters. The probability of reaching these targets remains high provided support holds.

The Break-or-Bounce Decision Point

This is the critical juncture: maintaining position above the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone favors continuation into Wave (5), fueling the bull case. However, a decisive breakdown below these support levels would invalidate the preferred count and suggest the fourth-wave retracement is extending into a deeper correction. Such a failure would target downside risk toward $0.35–$0.30 levels, fundamentally altering the intermediate outlook.

Market Implications and Risk Management

Traders should treat the Fibonacci retracement support zone as a make-or-break technical level. The weekly chart structure remains bullish, but only if support holds. Position management becomes essential here — bulls must defend these retracement zones, while bears need a clean break below to establish renewed downside momentum. This week’s price action will likely define the direction for the next several weeks.