TD Cowen Maintains Bullish Stance on MSTR With Aggressive $440 Price Target

TD Cowen’s Lance Vitanza has doubled down on his conviction in Microstrategy (MSTR), reaffirming a $440 price target that represents nearly triple the stock’s recent trading levels. The analyst’s thesis hinges on the company’s demonstrated ability to steadily accumulate Bitcoin holdings per share—even during periods of market weakness when valuations contract and traditional metrics fail to justify premium pricing.

The investment case extends beyond simple Bitcoin exposure. Vitanza emphasizes that Microstrategy’s innovative capital structure provides a sustainable competitive advantage in acquiring digital assets without incurring the constraints of traditional debt financing. This structural edge becomes increasingly valuable as Bitcoin prices remain under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds.

Capital Structure Innovation Powers Bitcoin Accumulation

Microstrategy’s recent financing activity exemplifies this strategic advantage. In early January, the company raised over $2.1 billion through a combination of common and convertible preferred stock offerings. Rather than deploying capital conservatively, management immediately channeled these proceeds—supplemented by additional funding—into acquiring 22,305 BTC, marking the company’s most aggressive weekly purchase since November 2024.

The mechanics underscore why TD Cowen’s analysts view this as transformational. By issuing convertible and variable-rate preferred shares at or near parity values, Microstrategy effectively gains leveraged Bitcoin exposure while minimizing traditional shareholder dilution. This structure allows the firm to maintain its accumulation strategy across market cycles, compounding its Bitcoin-per-share holdings regardless of sentiment.

Hidden Value in Preferred Share Structure

Beyond common equity, TD Cowen identifies compelling opportunities within the company’s preferred share offerings. The STRF class currently yields approximately 9.6% annually, a rate the analysts expect will compress to 7.9% as valuations normalize. This compression implies roughly 20% price appreciation potential in the preferred shares themselves, with total annual returns potentially reaching 30% when dividend income is factored in.

This dual-layer return structure—combining fixed income streams with capital appreciation—creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile for sophisticated investors willing to navigate the capital stack.

Market Leadership Position Reinforces Thesis

Microstrategy’s Bitcoin holdings have reached 709,715 BTC, an unmatched position among publicly traded companies. At current Bitcoin valuations around $69,000, this treasury represents a dominant claim on institutional-grade digital asset exposure. TD Cowen argues this scale, combined with the company’s repeated ability to finance incremental purchases through equity issuance, positions Microstrategy to continue accumulating Bitcoin through extended bear markets.

The analyst’s $440 target reflects confidence that this equity-financed accumulation model—combined with the outsized leverage embedded in the stock’s sensitivity to Bitcoin price movements—will generate exceptional returns once sentiment transitions from defensive to constructive on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.