From $34,522 to $75,000: A Cross-Cycle Test of Bitcoin Faith

In November 2023, when Bitcoin was hovering around $34,522, an author wrote a profound reflection on halving, scarcity, and long-term holding. Sixteen months later, Bitcoin experienced intense volatility—from a new high of $73,000 to a "flash crash" near $75,000. This article re-examines the core logic that has persisted through cycles—stock-to-flow model, ETF channel effect, price anchoring game—and explores why the simple strategy of "holding Bitcoin" remains valid amid the perfect storm.

1. The Intersection of Prophecy and Reality

On November 4, 2023, Bitcoin closed at $34,522.

An anonymous author wrote: "By 2025, perhaps we will see Bitcoin at $100K+." At that time, the market was slowly recovering from the deep bear of 2022, the halving cycle was still ahead, and the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs was still uncertain.

Today, 16 months later, Bitcoin did reach a new high of $73,000 but then fell back near $75,000 in February 2025. That price level coincides with the key support during the April tariff turmoil and is also a psychological barrier for many investors.

History does not repeat simply, but it often rhymes.

The author mentioned: "You think we are still in a bear market, but in fact, the bear market quietly ended without your notice." This was validated in early 2024—while most were still debating ETF approval, Bitcoin quietly broke through $45,000, entering a new cycle.

However, the market also sent a warning to all "HODLers": even long-term bullish logic cannot immune short-term liquidity storms.

2. Stock-to-Flow Model: The Mathematical Proof of Scarcity

The "Stock-to-Flow" (SF) model proposed by Arab scholar Saifedean Ammous in "The Bitcoin Standard" remains the core framework for understanding Bitcoin's value.

In 2023, Bitcoin’s SF value was about 54, comparable to gold. After the fourth halving in April 2024, this number surged to 108, with the annual inflation rate dropping to around 0.9%—Bitcoin officially became the most scarce asset in human history, surpassing gold.

This change in supply dynamics is the underlying reason for Bitcoin’s long-term price appreciation, not any ETF or institutional narrative.

Interestingly, when gold and silver experienced epic crashes in February 2025 (gold down over 10% in a single day, silver plunging 26%), Bitcoin’s relative performance validated the model’s resilience. The metals’ plunge was driven by forced liquidations of high-leverage positions and liquidity tightening from the "Wash Shock," but Bitcoin’s scarcity logic remained intact.

The author wrote in 2023: "Bitcoin has become the most scarce asset in human history after gold." Today, this judgment is being re-priced by the market—not through gentle appreciation, but through intense volatility.

3. ETF Channel: The Suez Canal Metaphor Comes True

The author compared BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF to the "Suez Canal," connecting old money with new pools. This prophecy became reality in 2024.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs indeed brought massive capital inflows. Data previously shared showed that during a certain period in 2025, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs over five weeks totaled $6.63 billion, with BlackRock’s crypto portfolio soaring from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion.

But the author also warned: "Whether BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF gets approved or not, it doesn’t matter. When it gets approved is also not important. What matters is the expectation of 'Bitcoin ETF approval'—as bait to boost market confidence—will gradually generate momentum."

This was validated in February 2025. When concerns arose over the hawkish stance of Fed Chair nominee Waller, ETF funds began net outflows, and Bitcoin’s price came under pressure. The channel still exists, but the flow direction can reverse.

The Suez Canal metaphor still holds—connecting two oceans, but whether ships pass depends on the wind and tides.

4. Price Anchoring Game: From Manhattan Land to Digital Gold

The author compared Bitcoin to "Manhattan land," a social status symbol. This view was fully validated in the 2024-2025 market.

When Bitcoin broke $70,000, it truly became "a courtyard inside Beijing’s Second Ring, an old Western-style house on Shanghai Hengshan Road, a villa in Hong Kong’s Mid-Levels." Holding Bitcoin is no longer just an investment but a symbol of status—demonstrating strength, stability, loyalty, and faith.

But the brutal truth of the price anchoring game is: it is both a moat and a trap.

The crash in February 2025 proved that when liquidity tightens, even "Manhattan land" can temporarily depreciate. The crashes of gold and silver have shown that no asset can remain unscathed in a deleveraging storm.

However, the core argument remains valid: "Bitcoin’s greatest anchor is the consensus on its 21 million total supply." This consensus did not waver amid the storm. What truly shook was the leverage positions of traders, the confidence of speculators, and the flow of short-term funds.

5. Who Steals Your Coins: The 2025 Version of Altcoin Traps

In 2023, the author warned: "People are hypocritical—loving Bitcoin in words but buying altcoins with their hands. This is exactly the trap set by the whales—hand over your chips willingly, and you get junk coins while they get Bitcoin."

This warning was almost forgotten during the 2024 "Altcoin Season." When Bitcoin hit new highs, Ethereum, Solana, various AI-themed coins, and Meme coins surged one after another, convincing many that "this time is different."

But the February 2025 crash provided the answer. Bitcoin fell from $87,000 to $75,000—a decline of about 14%; many altcoins dropped over 30%, even 50%. The ETH/BTC ratio once again became the "most perfect trap."

The author stated: "Choosing assets with a 10-year cycle, the only choice in the entire crypto market is Bitcoin." This judgment may seem too conservative amid short-term volatility, but from a cross-cycle perspective, it remains the only mathematically expected strategy.

6. The Long Night Approaches: Standing Guard in the Perfect Storm

The market environment of February 2025 is completely different from November 2023:

• Monetary policy: from expected rate cuts to tightening fears driven by the "Waller Shock"

• Geopolitics: from Middle East tensions to political risks triggered by the "Epstein files"

• Liquidity: from ETF capital inflows to cross-market deleveraging

• AI narrative: from ChatGPT frenzy to doubts about commercialization

But some things never change.

The author wrote: "Bitcoin plays the role of the anti-inflation hedge. Its essence is a 'Rug' against fiat." When the US government’s fiscal deficit in the first three months of 2026 is projected to reach $601 billion, debt interest payments surpass $1 trillion, and tariffs and political uncertainties stack up—the fragility of the fiat system becomes even more apparent.

In November 2023, the author said: "The long night is coming; start watching from tonight, and never stop until death."

By February 2025, the long night indeed seems to have arrived. But the Bitcoin held by the night-watchman remains that scarce asset with a total of 21 million, algorithmically constrained, permissionless, and globally liquid.

7. Restating the Strategy: Bear Market Accumulation, Bull Market Exit

The author’s final, almost brutal, advice: "Accumulating in phases during bear markets, exit at the top during bull markets."

This strategy was effective during the window from November 2023 to March 2024. Investors who built positions near $34,000 still retained considerable unrealized gains despite the February 2025 crash.

But "exiting at the top" is easier said than done. How many people took profits when Bitcoin hit $73,000? When ETF funds kept flowing in, how many believed "this time is different"?

Markets always punish greed harshly and test patience with long sideways periods. The February 2025 crash may have been a forced clearing of overly optimistic 2024 expectations.

Epilogue: The Narrow Gap Still Exists

In 2023, the author wrote: "This is the 4th halving in Bitcoin’s history and the last chance for ordinary investors—like a narrow slit in the ancient city wall at sunset. Once this door closes, the last opportunity to get on board will vanish."

Sixteen months later, does that door still remain?

From a price perspective, Bitcoin at $75,000 is more than double the $34,522. But from a scarcity perspective, halving is complete, the annual inflation rate is down to 0.9%, ETF channels are open, and institutional allocation is the trend.

That slit may have narrowed, but it has not yet fully closed.

For those who read that article in 2023 and chose to believe, the 2025 storm is both a test and a validation—testing your position management and validating the core logic.

For newcomers to Bitcoin, the price during the storm may be more worth watching than during the frenzy. After all, "holding onto your Bitcoin" is never too late—so long as you can handle volatility, understand scarcity, and are willing to be that "night-watchman" until death.

Did you also read that article in 2023? How did your decisions then influence your holdings today? Share your story in the comments!

If you found this article helpful, please like, bookmark, and share. In the storm, we need each other's signals more than ever. Follow us to avoid getting lost—let’s cross the cycle together!

Disclaimer: This article is based on historical review and market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously according to your risk tolerance. #BTC何时反弹？ $BTC