New Year crypto market rebound accelerates, on-chain signals reveal bullish sentiment warming up

Overcoming year-end volatility, the crypto market has shown a clear signs of recovery at the start of 2026. After shaking off the pressure at the end of the year, both BTC and ETH have rebounded, and the details in on-chain and derivatives markets reveal a warming trend spreading through the market.

Macro Shift and Liquidity Expectations Turn Positive

The underlying logic supporting this rebound remains unchanged—the shift in global liquidity expectations remains the core driver. The Federal Reserve continued to cut rates in 2025, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%. The cooling of inflation and the employment market leaves room for further easing policies in 2026.

Although geopolitical events at the beginning of the year briefly disturbed market sentiment, such disruptions were quickly absorbed as daily fluctuations and did not trigger a trend reversal. The relatively mild macro outlook provides a favorable backdrop for the recovery of crypto assets.

How Are Actual Trends? Tax Loss Selling Subsides, Price Rebounds from Bottom

The first week of the new year shows straightforward market behavior: BTC rebounded from around 88,000 at year-end to above 93,030 USD; ETH also saw adjustments. Three main drivers behind this rebound:

1. Post-holiday trading activity normalized, and market liquidity warmed up. The concentrated tax-related sell-off by US investors in December was released, and after the new year, selling pressure significantly eased. Historical data indicates that such sell-off cycles often end with a rebound. Fresh capital inflows and active buying by Asian traders absorbed year-end selling, pushing prices out of consolidation.

Micro Signals from On-Chain Data

Details reveal the true picture. Monitoring on-chain data uncovers signs of market stabilization:

Tighter Chip Supply. BTC and ETH continue to net outflows from centralized exchanges, reducing the available chips for immediate trading, which lowers the risk of sharp sell-offs.

“Arsenal” Restores. The total market cap of major stablecoins has resumed upward, providing more liquidity for crypto purchases and supporting the market rebound with continuous funding.

Network Activity Reignited. Daily active addresses on Bitcoin and Ethereum networks have increased at the start of the year, indicating gradually recovering user engagement and market popularity.

Derivatives Market Reveals Sentiment Shift

Changes in the options market clearly reflect a shift in market sentiment:

Implied volatility (IV) of short-term options has fallen to near two-year lows, indicating a significant decline in expectations of extreme short-term volatility and overall sentiment stabilizing. The 25Δ skew structure in options has also rapidly recovered, with BTC’s skew turning positive—this suggests the previously dominant “defensive” demand for put options is waning, while “offensive” call buying interest is rising, signaling a shift from defensive to more bullish sentiment.

Open interest (OI) is concentrated around key price levels like 90,000 and 100,000 USD for BTC, which will serve as important short-term psychological resistance and support levels.

Risks and Opportunities in the Current Situation

Overall, the market is at a crossroads of recovery and consolidation, with the direction yet to be determined. Improved macro liquidity expectations, tightening on-chain supply, and warming derivatives sentiment weave a bullish structure. However, prices have already risen to critical resistance zones; whether a new trend can be initiated depends on a successful breakout above key resistance levels.

In this phase, investors can adopt strategies aligned with their risk appetite: structured products to profit from volatility within ranges; gradual accumulation if bullish long-term but cautious about chasing highs; or hedging existing holdings with derivatives tools.

GGB’s ecosystem also demonstrates vitality amid this market recovery. As a platform utility token, its role in liquidity support and ecosystem incentives should not be overlooked.