Bitcoin surged past $95,000, breaking a nearly two-month stalemate. Many cheered that the rally was finally taking off. But a closer look at derivatives data suggests things might not be that simple.

Ethereum also rose along with Bitcoin, but it has been stuck around $3,400, with a noticeably smaller gain compared to Bitcoin. This asynchronous performance is quite telling in itself.

On the spot market, things are lively. Bitcoin's trading volume in block trades today soared to $1.8 billion, accounting for over 40% of total transactions. Institutions and large traders are clearly betting on this upward move. Ethereum, on the other hand, is much calmer, with block trades totaling only $136 million, about 20% of the total. Capital is evidently flocking to Bitcoin.

But there's a signal worth noting—implied volatility (IV) hasn't risen significantly along with the price increase, and futures trading volume hasn't surged noticeably. What does this mean? This rally seems more like an instinctive market reaction to a sudden price jump rather than a systematic buildup based on long-term optimism and gradual positioning.

In other words, the derivatives market hasn't yet shown signs of "structural bullishness." Most investors' long-term expectations may not have fully shifted into a full-blown bull market mode.

While the spot market is enjoying gains, derivatives appear more rational or even conservative. This mismatch suggests that market confidence might still be in the early stages of recovery. To truly confirm the arrival of a trend-based bull market, we need to watch how derivatives positions change, whether volatility can pick up, and if mainstream coins like Ethereum can follow through with a breakout—these are the real keys to igniting market resonance.