BTC between two liquidation cliffs: $3 billion long liquidation intensity exposes leverage imbalance

According to the latest news, the current liquidation risk for BTC shows a clear asymmetric characteristic between long and short positions. If BTC falls below $90,932, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $3.041 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $100,436, the short liquidation strength will be only $1.071 billion. Currently, BTC is trading around $95,486.50, positioned between these two liquidation levels, and the market’s leverage structure issues are gradually becoming apparent.

Asymmetric Distribution of Liquidation Risks

Huge Disparity in Long and Short Liquidation Strengths

Data shows that the ratio of long to short liquidation strength is approximately 2.8:1, indicating that leveraged long positions dominate the current market compared to shorts.

This asymmetry implies a greater downside risk exposure. If BTC drops below $90,932, it could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, while breaking above $100,436 would exert comparatively moderate liquidation pressure.

Risk Levels at Current Price

BTC’s current price is $95,486.50, only $4,554 above the long liquidation trigger point (down 4.9%), and $4,950 below the short liquidation trigger point (up 5.2%). This suggests that the market is more prone to triggering long liquidations.

Based on relevant data, in the past 12 hours, the entire network experienced $623 million in liquidations, with short positions accounting for $553 million and longs only $69.66 million. This indicates that recent market activity has been releasing long pressure, but overall leverage remains substantial.

Insights into Market Leverage Structure

Why is the long liquidation strength so high?

This reflects two phenomena:

• Excessively optimistic leverage allocation: During BTC’s rebound from lows, a large influx of funds entered the market with leveraged longs, accumulating significant long positions.
• Cascade risk of liquidations: Once long positions are liquidated, a chain reaction could amplify the liquidation strength, creating greater downward pressure.

Historical Comparison

Data from January 12 shows that if BTC dropped below $90,000 at that time, the long liquidation strength was $637 million. In just two days, this figure surged to $3.041 billion, an increase of nearly 380%. This indicates that the market has been continuously accumulating long leverage positions.

Future Focus Points

The market should closely monitor several key aspects:

• Whether BTC can hold the support level at $90,932
• How strong the cascade effect of long liquidations could be if it breaks downward
• Whether market participants will proactively reduce leverage to manage risks
• Trends in recent liquidation data (whether short liquidations continue to dominate)

Summary

Currently, BTC is in a delicate position: the long liquidation strength is nearly three times that of shorts, indicating a significant long-side leverage risk. The $3.041 billion long liquidation strength not only reflects the current leverage scale but also exposes an over-allocation issue driven by optimistic sentiment. Based on the past 12 hours of liquidation data, the market is experiencing pressure, but the real risk lies in the potential chain reaction once liquidations are triggered. For traders, this is not just about price movements but also a reassessment of leverage risks.