Since 2022, the dance steps of Bitcoin and the US stock market have been aligned. Every move by the Federal Reserve in adjusting monetary policy causes Bitcoin to sway accordingly. What does this mean? It indicates that Bitcoin has officially been incorporated into the global mainstream asset pricing system.

You may have heard of the four-year cycle myth of Bitcoin. Historically, this cycle was driven by three factors: halving events, retail investors' concentrated holdings, and its natural disconnection from macroeconomics. It sounds logically complete, but now this theory is outdated.

The halving mechanism is still in place, but the marginal effects are diminishing. More importantly, the pricing power has shifted from miners and retail investors to institutional investors. These players are not playing the guessing game of halving but are instead looking at macro big-picture indicators like actual interest rates and US dollar liquidity.

In other words, Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a traditional safe-haven asset. Its price movements are now more influenced by the ebb and flow of global liquidity rather than being driven solely by the four-year supply curve. What does this mean for traders? They can ponder that themselves.