Ethereum "Whale Prophet": End of Wave C or Bear Trap? The Ice and Fire Behind the $7,155 Target

While the entire market is oscillating over the fund flows of Bitcoin ETFs, a mysterious agent known as "BTC OG Insider Whale" Garrett Jin dropped a bombshell on social media: Ethereum has completed Wave C decline and is restarting the fifth wave of the upward channel from April last year, with a theoretical target directly at $5,413-$7,155.

This prophecy starkly contrasts with the current reality of Ethereum struggling around $3,100. Is this the foresight of a legendary whale, or wishful thinking of the bulls? Let’s analyze this crypto drama intertwined with technical and fundamental factors using the latest market data.

1. The Whale’s "Wave Code": The Technical Narrative of Wave C Ending

According to Garrett Jin’s analysis, Ethereum’s recent correction shows a clear Elliott Wave structure:

• Wave C start: October 10, 2025, ETH price above $3,800

• Momentum exhaustion: Downtrend halted on November 20, failure of Wave 5 decline on December 18

• Trend reversal signals: Wave 5 decline incomplete, indicating exhaustion of bearish forces

• Main bull wave restart: Re-entered the long-term upward channel’s Wave 5, beginning April 2024

"Wave 5 failure is a classic bottom feature," an anonymous technical analyst explained to us. "This means that although the price made a new low, sellers couldn’t follow through effectively, often signaling a trend reversal."

However, market reality offers complex feedback. Recent data shows Ethereum briefly dipped below $3,100 in early January, touching a low of $3,060. Although it quickly recovered the psychological $3,000 level, as of January 13, the current price of $3,138 still retraces 36% from the August 2025 high of $4,878. This sharply contrasts with the optimistic "trend reversal" narrative.

2. The Capital Flow "Ice and Fire": When ETF Encounters "Liquidity Panic"

Behind the whale’s technical faith lies intense volatility in crypto market capital flows at the start of 2026.

Cold Reality: Massive Capital Outflows in the First Week of the New Year

Data from SoSoValue shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a "rollercoaster" of fund flows in the first week of 2026:

• January 2: +$471M (opening boost)

• January 5: +$697M (three-month single-day high)

• January 6-8: three consecutive days of net outflows totaling $1.128B, nearly wiping out all gains

Ethereum ETF also saw a $159 million single-day outflow, continuing fragile capital sentiment. Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu pointed out: "With Q1 rate cut expectations cooling and geopolitical risks rising, the macro environment has shifted to risk-off. Until clearer signals emerge, cautious sentiment will dominate the market."

Hot Expectations: Institutional Long-term Bets Never Left

But while retail investors panic, smart money quietly positions:

• Morgan Stanley officially applies for Bitcoin and Solana spot ETFs

• US Bank Wealth Management begins recommending Bitcoin ETFs to clients

• Matrixport forecasts: "In 2026, ETF fund inflows may restart and be even stronger, with historical inflows of $34 billion and $22 billion in 2024-2025 forming the basis for a new rally."

This split of "short-term panic, long-term greed" perfectly sets the stage for Ethereum’s technical rebound.

3. The $7,155 Target: Fantasy or Starry Sea?

Garrett Jin’s two target levels are quite meaningful:

• Conservative target: $5,413 (about 70% rise)

• Aggressive target: $7,155 (about 130% rise)

From a technical perspective, $5,413 aligns with the historical second-highest point of the 2021 bull market, while $7,155 surpasses the $7,000 mark into full price discovery territory. To reach this target, ETH needs to break through multiple resistance levels:

Key levels to watch:

1. First hurdle: $3,500-$3,600 (January’s core resistance zone, multiple failed tests)

2. Second hurdle: $4,250 (59% of Kalshi traders believe it can be reached within the year)

3. Third hurdle: $4,878 (August 2025 peak, psychologically significant)

4. Ultimate hurdle: $5,000 (round number + strong technical resistance)

On-chain data shows conflicting signals: despite the sluggish price, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization demand continues to drive network usage, with DeFi lock-up volumes above $3,000 showing resilience. This suggests fundamentals have not worsened in tandem with the price.

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4. Market Sentiment Paradox: Hope Born from Despair

Ethereum in January 2026 is experiencing an "emotional bottom" — social media panic indices are at historic lows, and the "ETH is dead" narrative is resurging. But history rhymes:

In early 2025, ETH was similarly near $2,800 with market confidence collapsing, only to surge 70% over ten months to $4,878.

Current extreme readings of fear and greed indices flash classic contrarian signals. The whale’s view may not be mere talk: when technical structure, capital flows, and market sentiment resonate at the bottom, violent rallies often follow.

5. Investor Survival Guide: Finding Certainty Amid Volatility

How should ordinary investors navigate the heavily divided market expectations?

1. Key price levels to monitor:

• Bullish lifeline: $3,000 (loss would significantly increase Wave C continuation risk)

• Trend confirmation: $3,500 (stability needed to consider Wave 5 initiation)

• Breakout accelerator: $3,800-$4,000 (volume breakout could target higher levels)

2. Time window watch:

Garrett Jin’s analysis suggests Q1 2026 will be critical for validation. If ETH can hold $3,000 and reclaim $3,500 before March, the $5,000+ target will become mainstream.

3. Iron rules of risk management:

• Volatility remains high; limit single position to no more than 5% of total assets

• Use options to hedge tail risks (e.g., buy puts for protection)

• Distinguish "trading" from "investing": short-term traders should strictly cut losses; long-term believers can build positions gradually

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6. The Final Question: Do You Believe in Technicals or Narratives?

Garrett Jin’s $7,155 prophecy fundamentally challenges the current "macro-dominated" market with technical faith. Its premises are:

✅ Federal Reserve policies will not unexpectedly tighten

✅ Ethereum’s fundamentals (Layer 2 expansion, RWA adoption) will continue improving

✅ Institutional capital will flow back as expected after Q1

✅ Bitcoin ETF fund flows are only short-term rebalancing

Any disconnection among these could invalidate the wave theory. As Matrixport states: "This correction is more cyclical than structural" — but how long the cycle lasts is anyone’s guess.

Conclusion:

When whales whisper in the deep, the market often ignores; but when technical signals, capital flows, and sentiment indicators align, the silent majority should be alert. Whether the $7,155 target materializes or not, the $3,000-$3,100 zone remains an excellent mid-term risk-reward zone increasingly recognized by traders.

The charm of crypto lies in this eternal duel of "logic and emotion," "data and faith." Is Garrett Jin’s prophecy a guiding light or a mirage? Time will tell.

💬 Interaction Time:

• Do you believe Ethereum can break $5,000?

• Do you favor technical wave theory or institutional fundamentals?

• At current levels, would you buy the dip or wait and see?

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