I have read many institutional forecasts for Bitcoin in 2026, and I feel that the overall market consensus is taking shape. To summarize, Bitcoin's overall trend this year is expected to be oscillating upward, with the main annual range around $120,000 to $170,000, and the target price by the end of the year generally around $150,000.

But the underlying logic needs to be clarified, as the scenarios can vary quite a bit.

The most likely scenario (about 50% probability) is as follows: in the first half of the year, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $82,000 and $92,000, repeatedly testing the bottom and rotating. After the second quarter, as liquidity conditions improve, it will begin to rise in an orderly fashion, ultimately reaching $150,000. This is a high-probability, moderate-growth route.

However, there are optimistic views that if liquidity is unexpectedly loosened further, and institutional allocations continue to increase, the price could even break through $200,000 by the end of the year. This scenario has about a 30% probability and represents a more bullish market expectation.

Conversely, risk factors must also be considered. If inflation does not decline as expected, leading to a restart of rate hikes, or if risk assets crash directly, the price could fall to support levels of $60,000 to $80,000. The probability of this pessimistic scenario is roughly 20%.

The key variables determining whether these scenarios can materialize are a few. First is the Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts, which is the biggest external factor this year—liquidity conditions directly impact capital flow. Second is the continued inflow into spot ETFs and institutional allocations, which form the core support for prices. Third is regulation, especially the attitude of major regions like the US towards cryptocurrencies, which will influence the pace of institutional entry.

From predictions by traditional financial institutions like Standard Chartered and Bernstein, a target of $150,000 by the end of the year is a relatively balanced goal. Fundstrat, on the other hand, is more aggressive, giving a range of $200,000 to $250,000. Benjamin Cowen's view is more extreme; he believes Bitcoin needs to bottom out at $60,000–$70,000 before rebounding.

In trading terms, the short-term key level to watch is the resistance at $94,000; if broken, then look toward $100,000. But if it falls below $91,000, be prepared to see $82,000. For the long term, you can build positions gradually. If it really pulls back below $80,000, that could be an opportunity to increase allocations. But remember, spot and ETF holdings are the main focus; leverage is still a risky cliff.