Beautiful analysis often hides the greatest danger.

Most traders fall into the same trap: believing in an illusory formula— the more information you gather, the more logical your reasoning, the less uncertainty there is, and the higher your win rate.

It sounds reasonable. But the market doesn’t buy into that.

Even if you analyze fundamentals, technicals, macro background, and market sentiment flawlessly, and even if they all point to the same direction perfectly, you can still go bankrupt overnight. The reason is simple— when everyone sees the same "certainty" and follows the trend to bet, these pieces of information have already been fully digested by the price.

What truly determines the next move is often the unforeseen, unpriced sudden events. Black swan events never give you advance notice.

So perfect analysis is like the Emperor’s New Clothes. It makes you wear a coat called "confidence," giving you the illusion of controlling everything. You start to overlook a fundamental truth:

What kills you is never what you know, but what you completely don’t expect.