Policy-induced uncertainty doesn't just rattle markets—it fundamentally reshapes how economies behave. As we inch closer to the one-year mark since "Liberation Day," the stagflationary pressures baked into recent government policies are becoming impossible to ignore.

The mechanism is straightforward: when governments create uncertainty, businesses freeze. They hold back on investment, consumers tighten spending, and inflation pressures persist simultaneously—the classic stagflation trap. It's not some abstract economic theory anymore; you can see it playing out in real-time data.

Trump's policy agenda has proven particularly potent at generating this kind of uncertainty. Whether it's tariff threats, regulatory shifts, or fiscal moves, the effect is consistent: businesses don't know what the rules will be six months from now, so they act defensively. Meanwhile, inflation doesn't cooperate with the cautious approach—it keeps running hot.

The combination is toxic for growth. You get slower economic activity coupled with sticky price pressures. Sounds familiar? That's because we're living through it. As the anniversary approaches, expect this dynamic to become even more impossible for policymakers to sidestep. The data won't let them.