2026-01-13 21:20:33

Over the years of trading, my biggest insight is actually counterintuitive—the secret to making money isn’t about daily operations, but about learning to wait.

Look, 90% of the market time is spent in consolidation or decline, with only about 10% of the time in strong rallies. But where do most retail investors lose money? It’s in the mindset that "not moving funds is a waste." Holding full positions and trading frequently, in the end, slowly erodes your principal in a bad market.

Conversely, those who truly make money think like hunters—patience and long-term observation, only striking decisively when a clear opportunity appears. This sounds simple, but 99% of people can’t do it.

**Why can waiting lead to profits? Data speaks**

In the A-shares market, real trending opportunities occur only 1 to 2 times a year; in the cryptocurrency market, it’s slightly better, about 3 to 4 times annually. Think about it from another angle: if you insist on trading during non-trending periods, your win rate might be below 30%.

Take Bitcoin in 2023 as an example. The total price fluctuation was about 70%, but interestingly, over 50% of the gains concentrated in the two weeks leading up to the halving. What does this mean? It means that if you chase daily volatility all the time, you might actually miss out on the real profits.

**How to turn waiting into a real strategy?**

The first trick is to set an "opportunity filter." Only when these three conditions are met do I enter the market:
- Trend confirmed (e.g., Bitcoin’s daily chart above the 200-day moving average)
- Volume increases (at least 30% higher than the average of the past 5 days)
- Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic (Greed Index drops below 20)

The second trick is to quantify the "time-wasting." Backtest with historical data to see how much time your holdings spend in choppy sideways movement. For example, Ethereum spends about 65% of the year in range-bound oscillations. During these periods, I stay out of the market and focus on fundamental research.

The third trick is to manage cash well. Don’t put all your funds into one basket; allocate in layers: 60% of your core capital to chase the main upward wave, 20% for trial and error, and the remaining reserve for future opportunities.

The principles are simple, but execution truly tests human nature. Those who can endure and wait will ultimately profit.

BTC4.46%

ETH7.05%

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PrivateKeyParanoia

· 5h ago

Basically, it's about controlling your hands and waiting for the days when profits appear.

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 5h ago

To put it simply, how many people can truly stick to holding no positions?

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 5h ago

That's right, but it's really hard to do, brother. I've heard that many times, and very few people can truly wait. What happened to those who went all-in? Waiting and waiting, until the end of time. I just want to ask, how do you know that moment has really arrived? Sometimes I feel that human nature is the biggest enemy of trading.

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NotGonnaMakeIt

· 5h ago

That's right, brother, I just can't help it. --- This theory has been heard so many times, but the key is still discipline. --- Waited half a year and got nothing, but watched others make money. --- The core is two words: greed, can't change it. --- The opportunity filter framework still has some value; I need to try it. --- I just want to know how many people can really hold a position empty for more than a month. --- In those two weeks of 2023, I just couldn't follow through, my mindset collapsed. --- It's another test of human nature; no matter how much you talk about it, it's still about mental strength. --- The layered allocation is written quite clearly; I'm just worried I might mess it all up when I execute. --- So basically, it still depends on how much you can afford to lose; poor people simply can't endure it.

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 5h ago

That's right, you just need to be able to endure. Last year, I was too impulsive, trading every day, and ended up losing everything. This year, I've mainly been waiting, and it feels like the money is slowly coming back. There aren't many who can do it; nine out of ten people around me can't sit still.

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DefiPlaybook

· 5h ago

According to data, the 50% increase in Bitcoin in 2023 concentrated in a 2-week period. This case is indeed worth pondering. But the question is, how do retail investors know that those 2 weeks are the golden period? To put it simply, 99% of people simply can't do it. It's not just a mindset issue; they also need enough cash reserves to support a period of holding cash. This is an impossible requirement for most people. However, based on historical data, this methodology does have its rationality. The data showing 65% of the time being volatile is quite sobering. No one can truly wait it out completely; there are only degrees of patience. Being able to wait ≠ making money; execution is the key.

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