Bitcoin's STH SOPR indicator dropped to around 0.98 at the end of last year—this level was last seen in November 2022, when Bitcoin just touched the $16K bottom. Now, this indicator has been hovering below 1.00 for over 70 days, indicating that the persistent stop-loss selling pressure has not truly eased.

Interestingly, retail investors' performance. They always enter the market last, and often are the first to exit. This wave of market behavior is no exception—when the chips are cheapest, they are still on the sidelines; when there are some rebound signals, they rush in. When the test comes, they run the fastest.

From on-chain data, the market has not yet entered a true capitulation phase. A real bottom is usually accompanied by a large-scale sell-off, but now it’s just slow, continuous bleeding. In this state, market participants' mentality is still repeatedly entangled.