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After the latest US CPI data was released, market sentiment clearly shifted to optimism. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year, exactly in line with market expectations; the core CPI was even a pleasant surprise, at 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%.
Once the data was published, the US stock market responded immediately— the S&P 500 hit a new high, and Bitcoin also followed suit, smoothly breaking through the $93,000 mark. This coordinated reaction almost became a market reflex.
The analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter pointed out a detail: the December CPI and core CPI were basically flat month-over-month, indicating that inflationary pressures have temporarily eased. This sends a signal to the market—concerns about runaway inflation can be temporarily set aside. However, their forecast is that the Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged at the January meeting.
On one hand, macroeconomic data looks positive; on the other hand, policy developments remain noteworthy. The US President continued to advocate for rate cuts after the CPI release, even linking trade tariffs and inflation pressures. The market is well aware—this is a move to create momentum for further liquidity easing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Funds Rate being adjusted in the short term is indeed low, but the existence of policy pressure itself is enough for the market to sense potential easing expectations.
Most interestingly, recent legal investigations surrounding the Federal Reserve Chair have also been interpreted by the market—viewed as a signal of administrative pressure on the independence of monetary policy. In the long term, this trend often reinforces market expectations of improved liquidity conditions, providing short-term support for stocks and cryptocurrencies.