This trade before the NYC contract launch is a classic example of a timing dilemma—buying the dip on Kraken 10 minutes early, with the account once showing a floating profit of $250,000, thinking that waiting for the contract announcement would allow for a straightforward arbitrage. But reality delivered a sharp slap, and ultimately this trade ended with a loss of $477,000. From floating profit to loss, what exactly happened in between? This is not only a personal trading failure but also reflects the brutal information gap in the contract market and the cost of emotional decision-making. Early positioning ≠ stable profits; timing windows, stop-loss settings, risk management—any lapse in these areas can instantly turn a seemingly perfect trading opportunity into a disaster.