The recent financial developments and their relationship with the crypto market are worth a thorough review.

First, let's look at the US stock market. The rebound at the beginning of the year has been somewhat challenging, but chip stocks performed well, which has driven the stock prices of crypto-related listed companies to generally rise—such as a leading crypto exchange's publicly traded company and MicroStrategy, indicating that capital is clearly flowing into this sector.

Next, consider the situation with the US dollar and US Treasuries. The US dollar index has seen a slight rebound, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is fluctuating around 4.19%. More importantly, at the Federal Reserve, the probability of a rate cut in the January meeting is only 13.3%, implying that the high-interest-rate environment may persist for some time. High rates are generally not good news for risk assets, and the crypto market, as a risk asset, is no exception.

Interestingly, the precious metals market has also caught attention. Gold and silver have recently retreated from high levels, with some believing this may be due to capital rotation—from safe-haven metals to cryptocurrencies. This logic is not without merit.

On the policy front, there are several key points not to be overlooked. If the US Congress does not pass the budget bill by January 31, the government risks a shutdown, which would introduce uncertainty into the market. Additionally, the tenure of the current Federal Reserve Chair is also changing, and the new chair candidate could alter future monetary policy directions, impacting all asset prices in the long term.

Returning to January itself, the performance of the crypto market largely depends on the interaction of several factors:

First is macroeconomic data. Next week, key data such as US non-farm payrolls will be released, directly influencing market expectations of Federal Reserve policy. If economic data shows strong performance, it will push back the timing of rate cuts, which could suppress the upside potential of the crypto market.

Second is regulatory progress. The US House of Representatives has already passed relevant legislation, and these policy developments will influence market sentiment and capital flows in the short term.

Overall, January's crypto market appears to be balancing between macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, and regulation. Data will speak, policies will speak, and market participants need to capture the contradictions and harmonies among these signals.