When I scrolled to that screenshot of Duan Yongping at 3 a.m., my mind buzzed—single account profit of $33 million. Fourteen years ago, after Steve Jobs passed away, he heavily invested in Apple, ultimately yielding an 1881% return. The comment section was full of sentiments, but as I stared at that image, I suddenly felt uneasy: what if the timeline had changed? What if Apple hadn’t developed Apple Pay or missed the cloud computing wave? Then the so-called 'great company' would just be Schrödinger’s cat on the timeline.
Here lies the most common trap—using the certainty of the past to package the uncertainty of the future. It wasn’t until I delved into the architecture design of a certain Oracle project that I realized a key shift: Duan Yongping’s bet wasn’t on Apple as a company, but on the fact that 'Apple continues to generate verifiable value.'
In the crypto world, these types of Oracle systems are building what’s called a 'real-time value discovery mechanism.' Unlike traditional financial reports that lag 90 days, they directly capture on-chain real activity data—such as the daily actual fee income of a DeFi protocol, creator royalty flows in the NFT ecosystem, or even cross-chain bridge asset reuse efficiency—and convert this information into a 'on-chain profitability index.' In other words, while Duan Yongping looked at cash flow statements back then, we now observe the real-time flow of value on the blockchain.
What does this change? When searching for the next 'Apple-level' crypto project, you no longer need to gamble on a narrative. Instead, you can see the true business activity happening through verifiable on-chain data. This is the shift from 'rearview mirror investing' to 'real-time value discovery.'
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UnluckyValidator
· 4h ago
Haha, Duan Yongping's move was indeed brilliant, but do they still want to copy it now? The difficulty is through the roof.
Listening to the story of the chosen ones is enough; Oracle's way sounds good, but can we really trust the on-chain data?
I just remembered, someone used to say that DeFi transaction fees could indicate the quality of a project. And the result?
Real-time on-chain data sounds impressive, but could it be another kind of "rearview mirror" scam?
This idea is good, but how do you calculate the cost of manipulating the Oracle system? No one brings up this point.
Everyone's talking about "verifiable value," but the question is, who verifies the verifiers? 😂
This is just gambling on luck like apple-picking, packaging it as scientific decision-making. It sounds good, but I still can't believe it.
View OriginalReply0
FlyingLeek
· 01-03 11:51
Schrödinger's cat is a great analogy, but honestly, I'm still a bit skeptical about the real-time verifiability of on-chain data... after all, the data itself can also be manipulated.
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Layer2Arbitrageur
· 01-03 11:46
nah wait... if oracles are just pulling chain data, who's verifying the verifiers? that's where the real MEV lives tbh
Reply0
LiquidityOracle
· 01-03 11:45
Really not, this set of "real-time value discovery" sounds great, but on-chain data can also be deceptive... inflated gas fees, wash trading, fake prosperity from liquidity mining... Back in Duan Yongping's time, he focused on the essence, but now we're just looking at another version of candlestick charts.
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PensionDestroyer
· 01-03 11:40
Don't rely on that. How good is real-time on-chain data? In the end, it's still a gamble on human nature. Duan Yongping's 1881% is simply good luck, hitting the time when Steve Jobs passed away. Even if you give me a hundred Oracles, they can't predict the next black swan.
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ZKProofster
· 01-03 11:32
honestly the whole "verifiable on-chain" angle is just cope for not having a proper business model yet. segment perpetual's already doing this better off-chain.
When I scrolled to that screenshot of Duan Yongping at 3 a.m., my mind buzzed—single account profit of $33 million. Fourteen years ago, after Steve Jobs passed away, he heavily invested in Apple, ultimately yielding an 1881% return. The comment section was full of sentiments, but as I stared at that image, I suddenly felt uneasy: what if the timeline had changed? What if Apple hadn’t developed Apple Pay or missed the cloud computing wave? Then the so-called 'great company' would just be Schrödinger’s cat on the timeline.
Here lies the most common trap—using the certainty of the past to package the uncertainty of the future. It wasn’t until I delved into the architecture design of a certain Oracle project that I realized a key shift: Duan Yongping’s bet wasn’t on Apple as a company, but on the fact that 'Apple continues to generate verifiable value.'
In the crypto world, these types of Oracle systems are building what’s called a 'real-time value discovery mechanism.' Unlike traditional financial reports that lag 90 days, they directly capture on-chain real activity data—such as the daily actual fee income of a DeFi protocol, creator royalty flows in the NFT ecosystem, or even cross-chain bridge asset reuse efficiency—and convert this information into a 'on-chain profitability index.' In other words, while Duan Yongping looked at cash flow statements back then, we now observe the real-time flow of value on the blockchain.
What does this change? When searching for the next 'Apple-level' crypto project, you no longer need to gamble on a narrative. Instead, you can see the true business activity happening through verifiable on-chain data. This is the shift from 'rearview mirror investing' to 'real-time value discovery.'