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The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has indeed been impressive these days. The Hang Seng Tech Index surged 4% in a single day, and the Hang Seng Index followed with a 2.76% increase. On the chart, a strong bullish candlestick just closed on Friday, indicating that the main upward trend has truly started. My judgment is that it is highly likely to continue being strong next week.
The US stock market is also rebounding in sync, with Nasdaq tech stocks stabilizing after declines, providing strong external support for the Hong Kong tech sector. But here’s the interesting part—the valuation comparison is entirely different. As of last Friday, the Nasdaq Composite's overall P/E ratio was 36, while the Hang Seng Tech Index was only 23. That’s a significant gap.
Looking at the space for growth, Nasdaq is already at a historical high. Although there has been some correction recently, the extent is limited. The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently at 5736 points, still nearly half away from its all-time high of 11167 points, which is clearly a historical low. In other words, valuations are cheap, and there’s plenty of room for growth.
Recent positive news cannot be ignored either. The US has relaxed export restrictions on high-tech products like chip manufacturing equipment to China, which directly boosted the Hong Kong tech sector significantly. The external situation is expected to gradually ease before April, and the negative factors that previously suppressed valuations have basically been exhausted.
From this perspective, the story of the Hong Kong market is just beginning to unfold. The potential for the Hang Seng Tech Index to rise may exceed many investors’ expectations. The simplest strategy in a bull market is to hold firmly and not to tinker.