#稳定币市场发展 Having come across the latest research papers on stablecoins, I have to say that this conclusion has made me reevaluate many of the anxieties from the past few years.

Remember 2019? When Libra was announced, the whole market was buzzing with rumors that banks were doomed and deposits would be massively diverted. I also followed the trend and worried, fearing I hadn’t fully understood this revolution. But years have passed, and the data is in front of us—explosive growth in stablecoin market cap, yet bank deposits haven’t really flowed out? Almost not at all.

The truth is actually quite harsh and realistic: the stickiness of deposits is much stronger than we imagined. The reason you keep your money in a bank isn’t because of how great a checking account is, but because your mortgage, credit cards, and direct salary payments are all tied there, making your entire financial life interconnected. This friction mechanism is so effective that a few basis points of additional yield simply can’t pry it apart.

But that doesn’t mean stablecoins are useless. On the contrary, their emergence itself acts as a whip—forcing banks to raise interest rates and improve efficiency, no longer relying on user inertia to maintain their old profits. This is competition and evolution. The previous narratives about "massive deposit outflows" were more about vested interests’ panic-mongering, ignoring the fundamental economic logic.

The real opportunity lies in efficiency. How long has the high cost and slow cycle of cross-border payments troubled the financial system? Stablecoins’ "atomic-level settlement" can compress days of fund transfers into a single on-chain transaction. What does this mean for global fund management? It means the liquidity long occupied by correspondent banking systems can finally be released.

As regulatory frameworks become clearer, true integration will begin. The GENIUS Act’s reserve requirements are essentially about incorporating new forms into the existing financial engineering framework—this isn’t disruption, but an upgrade. The US is playing a big game: either leading this technology or watching the future of finance take shape offshore in judicial jurisdictions.

My feeling is that this change won’t be a zero-sum game of banks versus stablecoins, but a deep integration of the underlying financial infrastructure. Beware of those selling the "revolution" narrative—they’re often just trying to get you to follow the trend and buy in. Rationally speaking, stablecoins and the banking system will ultimately complement each other rather than oppose, benefiting the overall ecosystem’s efficiency.