"Ethereum to reach $10,000 in 2026"—this target price, which keeps appearing in major communities and research reports, sounds very tempting at first glance, but upon closer reflection, it might actually be a signal that retail investors are starting to lose money.

The issue isn't whether the prediction itself is correct, but rather that once the market forms a consensus, the logic of making money has already changed.

How do these predictions of ten million dollars come about? The套路 (套路) is actually quite fixed. Some directly apply the cycle extrapolation from the last bull market, completely ignoring the fact that the current market environment has changed dramatically—2021 didn't have spot ETFs, Layer 2 solutions for scaling, or strong competitors like Solana. Others stubbornly cling to Fibonacci sequences and technical indicators but ignore variables like Federal Reserve policy shifts and regulatory black swans. Some hype stories about Wall Street funds coming to take over, but who has truly considered—are these institutions just raising the market or actually harvesting retail investors?

Even more frightening is that some large institutions openly promote bullish views while secretly telling their internal clients the opposite. Fundstrat once privately warned clients that Ethereum might need to adjust to $1800–$2000 in the first half of 2026.

The first trap retail investors face is called "time lag harvesting." Even if Ethereum ultimately reaches the $10,000 mark, the fluctuations in between are enough to wash out most people. Following the standard route predicted by institutions: rushing to $6000 in Q1 sparks celebration, then dropping back to $3500 in Q2–Q3 to trap late buyers, and only breaking through the target price in Q4. Institutional funds are well-capitalized and can withstand several quarters of adjustments. But retail investors? They often chase the high at the top and cut losses at the bottom, only to watch the market rise while they are already out.