In the prediction market, after 55 days of ups and downs, I hit a wall again today. All three selected matches went wrong, and I lost everything in one go. This is already the fourth time this week I've had a bad run.

It's a bit heartbreaking to say, but the New Year started with average luck. Every time I judge the trend of the matches, it seems so fragile—what appears to be a confident prediction is quickly corrected by the market. I want to review where I went wrong in these failures, but sometimes maybe it's not the choices themselves, but a need to re-examine my understanding of risk and money management.

The longer you play in the prediction market, the more you realize: the data is there, but market sentiment and liquidity fluctuations often exceed expectations. But I will keep going, and come back later.