Filecoin (FIL) made quite a splash at the end of 2025. The price rebounded from the bottom, once surging to $2.6, giving many hope for a turnaround. By January 1, 2026, FIL's quote fell back to around $1.31, and the intraday volatility actually decreased, leaving the market a bit puzzled.

This phenomenon is actually quite typical—the short-term price jumps are often out of sync with long-term development potential. To truly understand how FIL will move next, instead of obsessively watching the K-line every day, it's better to clarify the fundamental logic behind it. In simple terms, whether FIL can reconstruct its value depends not on market sentiment, but on whether there is substantial improvement in supply and demand, and how the ecological development is progressing.

Changes on the supply side are the most noteworthy point in 2026. Predictions indicate that the Filecoin network will experience miner output reduction nodes in 2026, with a significant drop in new coin issuance. This coincides with FIL's deflationary mechanism—continuously destroying tokens through Gas fees and staking consumption, while the reduction in issuance also weakens selling pressure. Looking back at history, supply contraction often triggers asset rebounds. Data shows that since Q3 2025, FIL's annualized inflation rate has fallen from high levels to the 8%-15% range, and the punitive destruction mechanism has been strengthened, causing the growth rate of circulating supply to slow down. If ecological development progresses smoothly in 2026, this supply-demand rebalancing could push the price toward a healthier level.