Using your entire net worth to gamble on cryptocurrencies is no different from suicide. Looking back to 2013, Bitcoin's annual increase reached 5507%—what does that mean? At that time, no investment market had any asset that could outperform such a result. Under the wealth effect, many retail investors started to all-in or even borrow money to enter the market, with many people's cost basis above $1000. After Bitcoin hit a high of $1200 in November 2013, the market entered a long bear phase following the collapse of Mt Gox in 2014. From $1200 down to $280 in January 2015, the decline was shocking. The subsequent wait was even longer, until early 2017 when Bitcoin finally returned to the price level of November 2013. During these four years, this period was called the window for big players to wash out retail investors.

Don't you think such a story won't repeat? I don't see it that way. The current situation feels somewhat familiar—big fluctuations in 1011 already scared away many people, and outside capital is hesitant to enter. Many remaining in the market are hard-pressed to withstand losses and debts. The market's fragility is increasing. Personally, I believe the next black swan is most likely to come from some large enterprises heavily holding cryptocurrencies experiencing a sudden collapse, an impact strong enough to trigger chain reactions—even the collapse of exchanges is not impossible. Such a risk event on this scale would pause the entire crypto space, potentially for years of bear market.

So, rushing in at the first sign of a rise is honestly unwise.