When will this wave of gold price increases finally come to an end? Instead of guessing blindly, it’s better to review the historical records. Over the past 50 years, gold has experienced five major crashes, each driven by different market logic.

**First: September 1980 to June 1982**
In less than two years, the price of gold fell by 58.2%. At that time, central banks around the world were raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, which led to a decline in gold demand. Coupled with the gradual easing of the oil crisis, risk aversion also diminished, making a decline inevitable.

**Second: February 1983 to January 1985**
A drop of 41.35%. The global economy entered a period of easing, with developed countries beginning to recover. Reduced risk events meant no one was in a rush to buy gold as insurance. As demand loosened, prices naturally declined.

**Third: March 2008 to October 2008**
A decrease of 29.5%. This time, things got serious—the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis followed one after another, market liquidity dried up, and gold couldn’t escape unscathed. The Federal Reserve was still raising interest rates, which made things worse.

**Fourth: September 2012 to November 2015**
A fall of 39%. The stock and real estate markets were aggressively absorbing capital, with large amounts flowing out of gold into these sectors. Investors’ wallets are limited, so it was inevitable that gold would be neglected.

**Fifth: July 2016 to December 2016**
A decline of 16.6%. At that time, expectations of interest rate hikes in the US dollar increased, the global economy was accelerating, and investors reduced their gold holdings in favor of higher-yield assets.

Looking closely at these five crashes, the triggers are mainly interest rate policies, economic cycles, risk aversion, and capital flows. Will the next one happen? Possibly. But the real test is whether you can find your trading rhythm amid the intertwining of historical patterns and current realities.