Logan Paul Pikachu card auction is coming! Polymarket bets hit 10 million USD

Logan Paul confirms the auction of a Pikachu illustrator card (the only PSA 10 in the world) early 2026, sparking bets in the Polymarket prediction market. The probability of the auction exceeding $4 million is 91%, with the chance of surpassing $10 million dropping sharply. The auction not only tests collectible valuation but also involves disputes between Paul and Liquid Marketplace, with users claiming they cannot withdraw funds.

Polymarket Bets Reveal Market Confidence Thresholds

(Source: Polymarket) Polymarket’s prediction contracts will settle based on the final sale price (including buyer’s premium) announced by Goldin Auctions before the end of February 2026. This structure turns the auction into a live referendum, involving not just the card itself but also the market enthusiasm for high-tier collectibles and celebrity-owned assets.

As of late December betting data, a clear confidence stratification is evident. The probability of over $4 million is about 91%, indicating the market generally believes this card will easily surpass Paul’s initial purchase price of $5.3 million. When thresholds rise to $6 million and $7 million, probabilities remain high, reflecting investor recognition of scarcity premiums. However, once exceeding $10 million, the probability drops sharply, and beyond $15 million, it becomes cautious.

This distribution is not blind optimism but based on rational calculation. Bettors supporting the $7 million to $10 million range believe Paul’s celebrity aura, the card’s perfect condition, and its status as the only PSA 10 Pikachu illustrator card worldwide are enough to justify higher valuations. Skeptics question how much of this enthusiasm stems from intrinsic value versus celebrity amplification. The declining probability at higher price levels reflects this cautious attitude.

Online discussions add another layer of complexity. Memes, innovative tokens, and even card-themed NFTs have circulated widely, turning the auction into a crossover event spanning collectibles, internet culture, and speculative finance. This phenomenon itself drives price expectations, as buzz translates into potential buyer attention.

The Only PSA 10 and $5.3 Million Acquisition Insider

The Pikachu illustrator card was issued as a prize in a 1998 illustration contest held by Corocoro Comic magazine in Japan. Unlike mass-produced cards, this one was distributed only among a small group of winners, with an estimated total of 39 to 41 copies worldwide. Paul’s example is unique in that it is the only known Pikachu illustrator card graded 10 by a professional grading company (PSA), meaning it received perfect scores on centering, corners, edges, and surface.

Paul acquired this card through a record-breaking private transaction, confirmed by Guinness World Records in 2022, paying about $5.3 million plus cash for a lower-grade illustrator card. Since then, the card has become a promotional prop for his brand, enclosed in custom necklaces during wrestling events and interviews, turning a niche collectible into a mainstream spectacle. However, during Fanatics Fest, a heckler damaged the display case and forcibly pushed the card inside, fortunately without damage.

More controversially, online speculation is brewing questioning the authenticity of the PSA 10 grade. Several social media posts question whether the card truly meets the perfect standard, and this controversy could influence buyer confidence during the auction. If grading disputes escalate, PSA may need to re-evaluate or third-party verify, adding uncertainty to the auction.

Compared to the market, the Pikachu illustrator (PSA 10) remains at the top of Pokémon collectibles. In comparison, the Topsun Charizard Blue Back (Japan 1995, PSA 10) is valued at $500,000, the 1st Edition Shadowless Charizard (1999 Base Set, PSA 10) at $420,000, and the Silver Pikachu No. 2 (trophy promotional item) sold for $444,000. These comparisons highlight the premium valuation of the Pikachu illustrator but also raise questions: how much of this premium is due to rarity, and how much to Paul’s celebrity effect?

Liquid Marketplace Dispute: Three Key Issues

Frozen Funds for Score Token Holders: Users claim they cannot access their accounts and funds after Paul repurchased the cards, with promised buyback proceeds delayed or inaccessible.

Lack of Platform Transparency: Liquid Marketplace launched in 2022 promoting “democratized” access to elite collectibles, but soon faced complaints of being overwhelmed, with operational details unclear.

Paul’s Dual Role Conflict: X platform’s Community Note points out Paul is a co-founder of Liquid Marketplace, raising concerns over conflicts of interest.

Liquid Marketplace Dispute Could Drag Down Auction Momentum

Beyond price speculation, Logan Paul’s Pikachu illustrator card is also entangled in unresolved disputes with Liquid Marketplace, with which he is associated. Launched in 2022, it is a collectibles investment platform aimed at splitting ownership of high-value assets. Paul promoted the Pikachu illustrator as a flagship product, encouraging users to buy fractional tokens representing partial economic exposure to the card.

However, the platform was quickly overwhelmed by user complaints claiming they could not access funds after Paul repurchased the card. Token holders say that although Paul regained full ownership, promised buyback proceeds were delayed or inaccessible. A short summary post by an account named Loki this week received over 19,000 likes and 1,100 retweets, reigniting controversy.

Paul responded in a Christmas Eve X post: “For affected users unable to withdraw funds, please know I am actively working with Liquid Marketplace to ensure these funds are released soon, just as I expected when I repurchased the illustrator in May 2024.” This public reply indicates the seriousness of the issue but also raises new questions: why are funds still unreleased eight months after the buyback?

This controversy could impact the auction in multiple ways. First, potential buyers may hesitate due to concerns over Paul’s reputation. Second, Liquid token holders might pursue legal action, claiming they still hold partial economic rights to the card. Third, negative publicity could reduce the auction’s buzz, weakening price support. If unresolved before the auction, high-stakes bets on Polymarket could face significant reassessment.

From Nostalgia to Speculation: The Auction Will Reset Market Benchmarks

The planned auction will be handled by Goldin Auctions, a platform known for high-profile sports and trading card sales. Preview is expected to start in January 2026, with bidding possibly extending into February. Supporters cite broader trends toward alternative assets, with high-end Pokémon cards showing impressive long-term appreciation, and scarcity combined with a global fan base creating sustained demand.

Paul publicly frames the collectible as a culturally meaningful store of value for young buyers, who are less attracted to traditional markets. However, skeptics argue that Paul’s fame and ability to keep the cards in the public eye may be as influential as the rarity itself.

If the auction falls within Paul’s publicly cited $7 million to $12 million range, it will further cement the card’s status as an undisputed heavyweight in the Pokémon collecting world. Lower outcomes may cool expectations, while higher results could reset the entire trading card market benchmark. Regardless, Polymarket odds suggest traders expect the Pikachu illustrator to change hands at an astonishing amount, though opinions vary on how high the final figure could go.