Monday's market action was destined to make many people regret. Frankly, I had already cut my short positions last Saturday, and this time I clearly misjudged, causing trouble for friends following my signals. But we need to stay positive — one mistake doesn't mean much; the key is how we seize the next opportunity.

Now the market has reached a critical watershed. Bitcoin has rebounded after a correction, approaching $90,300, while Ethereum has held the $3,050 support line. Will this rally continue, or are the bulls just putting on a last wave of false hope? To understand this, we need to analyze the market from three angles: macro liquidity, candlestick patterns, and on-chain data.

**1. Liquidity is the true ruler of the market**

The current crypto market has long moved beyond the stage of relying on stories and hype. The rules of the game are simple — whoever controls liquidity, controls the market.

Recently, the Federal Reserve has been making several small moves toward the end of the year. Repos, short-term government bond purchases—these technical measures seem to stabilize the financial system on the surface, but fundamentally, they are injecting liquidity into the market. This isn't a policy shift, just a fine-tuning. But even these small adjustments are enough to sway the sentiment of the entire risk asset sector, including crypto.

The main factors influencing short-term rises and falls of Bitcoin and Ethereum are no longer grand narratives. ETF fund flows, stablecoin volume, futures positions—these numbers are the real manipulators. As long as these liquidity indicators remain positive, prices will have support.

**2. Whales' positioning in the options market**

The movements of major players in the options market are also worth paying attention to. Although specific data is still being tracked, the overall trend is clear — institutions are betting on a big move.