2025-12-29 05:21:41

This halving cycle is really a bit different. In previous years, we waited four years for the halving market to kick in, but this year Bitcoin hit a new all-time high ahead of schedule. This has left many long-term holders a bit confused—after all these years of the "halving must lead to a rise" rule, why did it become invalid?

Speaking of which, the new coins mined by miners are indeed decreasing every day, but right now only a few hundred new coins are created daily. Compared to the global daily trading volume, it’s barely enough to cause a ripple. The issue isn’t on the supply side; the real game-changer is liquidity.

Remember 2022? By then, the halving benefits had already been digested, the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, and Bitcoin plummeted from 69,000 to 15,000. No matter how scarce an asset is, if there’s no dollar liquidity in the market, prices will still decline. It’s like filling a bathtub with water—the water level determines the buoyancy of everything inside.

The sources of market liquidity are just a few: when the Federal Reserve loosens policy, when the Treasury recovers funds, and where various short-term funds are parked. The recent market movements are actually dancing to these macro factors. Whether a coin is worth money or not is one thing, but whether it goes up or down depends on the face of dollar liquidity.

Once you understand this logic, it becomes much clearer when looking at the market—rather than obsessing over the halving cycle, it’s better to pay more attention to the macroeconomic policies and their shifts.

BTC-2.47%

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BlockchainDecoder

· 21h ago

According to research, the liquidity hypothesis in this article is indeed valid, but it overlooks a detail—the evolution of the price discovery mechanism. Looking at the decline in 2022, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes were indeed the trigger, but fundamentally it reflects a re-pricing process of market expectations. It is worth noting that the argument about the failure of the halving cycle is too absolute. Halving affects the long-term supply curve, not short-term price fluctuations. Based on the following points of analysis: 1. Several hundred new bitcoins per day still have a significant impact on an annual scale; 2. Liquidity and supply are not a binary choice but are interconnected factors; 3. Historical data shows that there is indeed a systemic premium within 12-18 months after halving. It is recommended to re-examine this issue—rather than saying the pattern has failed, it is better to say that our definition of "pattern" itself needs updating. Macroeconomic liquidity is indeed the stage, but as an endogenous variable, the influence of halving should not be underestimated. This involves the dynamic balance of supply and demand curves, and more data may be needed to draw a definitive conclusion.

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DefiPlaybook

· 21h ago

The halving theory has failed, now it's all about the Fed's mood and how they choose to act The Fed's liquidity injections are easy to understand; raising interest rates is essentially a slaughter, it's that simple The bathtub water analogy is brilliant; newcomers in the crypto space need to understand this logic well Instead of chasing the halving cycle, it's better to study the monetary policy window; that's the real primary productivity A few hundred new coins added daily are really insignificant compared to the global trading volume; liquidity is the real boss Honestly, the crash in 2022 made many people realize the truth So the real issue now isn't about supply scarcity or abundance, but where short-term funds are flowing The intrinsic value theory of cryptocurrencies is too powerless in the face of macro policies In the end, it's a game of betting on the liquidity of the US dollar

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ImpermanentSage

· 21h ago

To be honest, the old trick of halving should have been outdated long ago; the key still depends on what the Federal Reserve is playing.

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GateUser-cff9c776

· 22h ago

Ha, the "halving must lead to a rise" dream has been shattered. It turns out the real script is written in the Federal Reserve's FOMC meetings. To put it simply, the main character in the crypto world isn't scarcity, but rather how the US dollar flows—those supply reductions are like mosquitoes biting an elephant in the face of macro liquidity. The bathtub theory was spot on. In 2022, the price dropped directly from 69,000 to 15,000. No matter how scarce something is, without dollar support, it's useless. That's the reality. Instead of waiting year after year for the halving cycle, it's better to learn how to read the central bank's mood. That's the true source of alpha in the Web3 era.

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