2025-12-29 05:20:16

I have been in this circle for many years, and since I entered in 2018, I haven't had a moment of peace. I personally experienced the entire process of Bitcoin soaring from $3,000 to $69,000, then dropping back to $16,000. At the craziest time, my 50,000 yuan principal grew to 7 million. To be honest, this wasn't luck-based gambling, but blood, sweat, and tears lessons learned through repeated falls with real money.

Today, I want to share 5 iron laws I’ve learned from the market, each repeatedly validated through practical experience. Some of these may overturn certain people's ideas, but it is precisely these "counterintuitive" rules that are key to survival.

**Rule 1: Distinguish between rapid rise with slow decline and rapid rise with flash crash**

When the market suddenly surges and then begins a slow correction, don’t panic and sell. This is usually the main force shaking out weak hands, deliberately oscillating to scare out indecisive retail investors. Once these people are gone, the real upward wave will come. But a completely different situation is when there's a 40% surge in one day, followed by a halving within hours—that’s a clear trap to lure in those chasing the high. In such extreme volatility, one word: run. Flash crashes after a rapid rise are never opportunities; they are scythes.

**Rule 2: Weak rebound and decreasing volume signals**

The coin price hits the bottom and then slowly pulls up. Many think it’s a good time to buy cheap. In reality, this weak rebound is nine times out of ten a false signal for the main force to offload. The final surge is designed to trap those who think they are "bottom-fishing experts."

Pay close attention to volume—continued high volume at high levels suggests room for further rise, so don’t rush to sell; but if volume suddenly shrinks at high levels, like a dead pond, then you must decisively exit. Continued volume at the top can sustain a little longer, but volume shrinking at the top is a true sign of a top.

**Rule 3: The authenticity of volume at the bottom is hard to judge**

When the price hits the bottom and suddenly a huge bullish candle appears with increased volume, don’t rush to chase. This is often a deliberate fake created by the main force. The real bottom signal is sustained high volume, not just one big bullish candle that excites you.

BTC2.27%

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LayerZeroHero

· 2h ago

The point of volume contraction and topping has indeed been tested multiple times, and the data support is still very solid... But what I'm more curious about is whether this pattern still applies in cross-chain arbitrage scenarios?

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TokenDustCollector

· 2h ago

Winning that 7 million was a bit ruthless, but the blood, sweat, and tears lessons that follow are the real assets. Seeing the volume peak and then decline is too heartbreaking; I fell for this back in the day. Weak rebounds are the most deceptive; every time I think I'm a bottom-fishing expert, but in reality, I'm just feeding the main players. A single big bullish candle shoots up, and eight out of ten become leek farmers. That sudden surge followed by a flash crash—those with slow reactions are directly out. This set of theories sounds right, but it all depends on whether you can really muster the courage to exit when executing. A volume decline at the top can easily numb oneself; greed is indeed the terminal illness of this industry.

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BankruptcyArtist

· 3h ago

Said nicely, but I think you still need to experience the pitfalls yourself to understand; talking on paper is meaningless. --- I believe in the point that volume shrinks and peaks; I've seen it too many times with my own eyes. --- Going from 7 million to bankruptcy happens in an instant; this circle is so magical. --- I've heard too many theories about weak rebounds, but in actual operation, it's still easy to be deceived. --- Hey, are you still holding your position now? --- The key is that if more people understand these patterns, will the main players still follow the routine? --- Going from 50,000 to 7 million also involves luck; don't say it's all your own skill. --- It's really hard to judge the bottom with volume increase; I always get it wrong. --- The difference between a shakeout and a trap is clear, but when it comes to the market, I simply can't react in time. --- This theory is somewhat useful for beginners; experienced traders already know it.

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