Looking at the current situation of ETH, the problem isn't really about how much selling pressure there is, but rather that the underlying support is too scattered.

The $2700 level is essentially the last consensus zone for accumulation. Once it breaks, the price will enter a vacuum zone with no effective support. And what about the real whales? They haven't retreated; they've just become more cautious. Chips are becoming increasingly concentrated in their hands, and systematic accumulation is still ongoing.

On-chain data makes this very clear. Around September 18 of last year, a large amount of funds built positions at the $4500 level. By December 6, when prices surged, these investors surprisingly didn't reduce their holdings. Then ETH kept falling, and they started to cut losses and exit. A large pile of trapped orders formed around $3100—these are whales who built positions between May and July last year in the $2600-$2700 range and kept adding. Their average cost is now stuck at $3100.

Interestingly, before November 23, big funds were bottom-fishing around $2700-$2800, accumulating heavily, and they haven't reduced their positions yet.

From the distribution of chips, the most concentrated zone right now is between $2700 and $3100, where 17.9 million ETH are stacked, accounting for 22.6% of the circulating supply. There are still 4.43 million ETH at $3100, but that isn't a resistance during rebounds; the real support should be at $2700. The current price oscillation in this range is actually because some institutions have reached a "consensus" here.

Whale behavior best illustrates the issue. The group holding over 100,000 ETH are the "smartest" players in this cycle. From February to April last year, when ETH dropped to $1500, they were the main force adding positions. After the rebound to $3500, they quickly started to unload, covering all the highs from August to October. By November 21, when ETH retraced to $2700, this group was adding again.

This is the true logic of the main players.