The recent market movements have been quite interesting. Mainstream coins BTC and ETH are declining, while coins like ZEC and BCH, which are usually less prominent, are surging. What is behind this phenomenon?

From the market perspective, this kind of counter-movement often indicates reallocation of funds. When major coins pull back, smaller coins tend to rise. From a technical standpoint, this could mean that big players are building positions, or that the market is searching for new hotspots. But there is a very practical question—how risky is it to short these highly volatile coins?

Let's look at some data to understand. Suppose a coin is worth 100 yuan. If it drops 6 times by 10%, it ends up at 59 yuan; the single drop is about 5.9 yuan. Conversely, if it rises 6 times by 10%, it jumps directly to 161 yuan; the single increase can reach 16.1 yuan. From a mathematical perspective, the absolute value of gains and losses are on completely different scales.

While holding a long position through a dip can allow for waiting for a rebound, and sometimes even more time might help to recover losses, shorting is a different story—once the price moves against you, losses have no ceiling, especially with certain coins. There are cases in the market showing that the risk of a short position is often more than ten times that of a long position, and this is not an exaggeration.

Small coins tend to have diverse themes, high volatility, and more complex participants, making trading more difficult than with mainstream coins. Instead of fixating on how to short ZEC, BCH, and similar assets, it’s better to focus on why they are surging at this particular time—whether there are fundamental supports behind the move or if it’s purely driven by technical factors.

The market is always changing, but one basic principle remains: understanding the risks is always more important than chasing returns.