#预测市场 The trouble with prediction markets has arrived. AI forgeries of public opinion, large traders manipulating prices, media hype—over the years, I've seen many projects collapse due to distorted information, and prediction markets now face the same dilemma.

The most heartbreaking part is that manipulation isn't actually difficult. The Romney case in 2012, the email guidance during the 2004 Berlin elections, and the large bets on Polymarket in 2024 all prove one thing: as long as you have money and the right mindset, you can push prices up in the short term. Even worse, ordinary users can't tell whether the information is genuine or artificially manipulated. Once media outlets like CNN start reporting market trends in real-time, the destructive power of false signals will be amplified infinitely.

But don't rush to give up. I believe the key lies in **looking at liquidity**—markets with high activity have much higher manipulation costs and are more resistant to distortion. Also, **consider transparency**—you need to see data like order books and abnormal trading patterns to judge whether there's genuine demand or just fake moves.

In simple terms, prediction markets themselves are not the problem; the issue is how we use them. Engage with markets that are actively traded and well-informed, and be cautious of sudden movements without clear reasons—that's the basic skill to avoid getting caught.