#预测市场 The prediction market data shows clear reversal signals. On Polymarket and Kalshi, Wash's probability of nomination surged from 7-10% in just two days to 48-52%, directly surpassing Hasset's 42-39%. This is not noise fluctuation but a rapid market pricing of policy signals.

Key observation points: Trump's statement ( "Yes, I think he is" ) combined with JPMorgan CEO Dimon's public support, constitutes a sufficiently strong market signal. Meanwhile, Hasset's probability dropped from a high of 85% to the 40% range, reflecting a reassessment of the risk factor "being too close to the president"—ironically, this former advantage has become a disadvantage.

From an on-chain data perspective, participants in the prediction market are relatively professional, and their pricing usually leads market sentiment by 3-5 trading days. This reversal likely indicates further policy development space, warranting continued monitoring of official statements and market liquidity changes.

Short-term key monitoring: (1) Whether Trump further clarifies his stance, (2) the stability of Wash and Hasset probabilities, (3) the capital flow in related derivatives.