#去中心化衍生品交易 Seeing Hyperliquid drop from 80% to 20%, there's a lot of chatter in the market shouting "it's peaked." But I have to be honest, these surface-level stories are the easiest to deceive.

Remember back in the day when I saw countless projects, and after a quarter of incentive seasons, users all fled? Now, Lighter is riding the incentive wave, with its points already accounting for 25% before the unlock. Once the TGE lands, these "liquidity" pools will automatically evaporate—this isn't speculation, it's a pattern.

But the real risk point for Hyperliquid isn't here. Shifting to B2B and betting on HIP-3, frankly, is a gamble on the future. In the short term, it will definitely be beaten by competitors still engaged in vertical integration and copying trends. I've seen too many projects die because of strategic shifts—what matters is whether the execution can keep up.

Current signals are there: Builder Codes' revenue and daily active users are growing, and HIP-3 already has practical applications like TradeXYZ. But it's still very early, far from a "perfect virtuous cycle." The real warning is, don’t wait until users and developers flow to competitors like Lighter before realizing you're falling behind.

Over the years on-chain, I've learned one thing: nothing is forever dominant. Whether Hyperliquid can turn things around depends not on how innovative HIP-3 is, but whether it can survive the incentive war and maintain the trust of core developers. The patience window now might only be 3-6 months; beyond that, it becomes dangerous.