2025 is coming to an end soon, and many people are starting to look ahead to the 2026 crypto market: "Will there be a bull run next year? Which assets should I allocate?" But I want to first give everyone a cold shower: don't be fooled by the Federal Reserve's "policy fog"! The 2026 crypto market will present both opportunities and risks, and the risks may be more deadly than the opportunities. In this article today, I will analyze the Federal Reserve's policy trends and outline three core opportunities and two deadly risks for 2026, helping you make fewer mistakes and earn more in the new year.

Let's start with the three core opportunities, each closely related to the Federal Reserve's policies. The first opportunity: RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) track. As the Fed cuts interest rates, traditional asset yields decline, and institutions will be more willing to tokenize traditional assets like government bonds and corporate bonds, using blockchain to improve trading efficiency and lower barriers. State Street Bank has already partnered with Galaxy to launch an on-chain liquidity fund, and Ondo Finance has committed to a $200 million seed fund, indicating that the RWA track has gained institutional recognition. In 2026, with more institutions entering the market, the RWA track is likely to explode, and leading projects in this sector are worth close attention.

The second opportunity: the "comeback" of the Ethereum ecosystem. Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio remains at a historically low level of 0.035, severely undervalued. In 2026, as the Federal Reserve's liquidity gradually loosens (albeit modestly), combined with the influx of new users from Xiaomi pre-installing Web3 applications, Ethereum, as the world's largest decentralized settlement platform, is likely to see increased ecosystem activity and fee income. Moreover, if Ethereum staking ETFs get approved, it will attract more institutional funds, further pushing up prices. I personally believe that breaking the 0.08 level for ETH/BTC in 2026 is highly probable, and optimistically, it could surge above 0.1.

The third opportunity: the Solana and Sei ecosystems. State Street's on-chain fund will launch on Solana early in 2026, Xiaomi and Sei have reached a partnership, and new devices will pre-install Sei-based Web3 applications. These two chains will experience rapid growth due to backing from institutions and giants. Additionally, these chains offer fast transaction speeds and low fees, making them more attractive to ordinary users, and leading projects within their ecosystems could see outsized gains. However, be aware that these chains can be highly volatile, so proper position management is essential—avoid heavy concentration bets.

Now, let's discuss two deadly risks, also closely related to the Federal Reserve's policies. The first risk: unexpected tightening of Fed policy. Although the market currently expects one rate cut by the Fed in 2026, if core PCE data continues to rebound and inflation pressures increase, the Fed may pause rate cuts or even resume hikes. If that happens, global liquidity will tighten sharply, risk assets will decline collectively, and the crypto market could crash. The Bitcoin crash in November 2025 was caused by inflation data exceeding expectations, shattering the hope for rate cuts—this is a lesson everyone must remember.

The second risk: market turbulence caused by internal disagreements within the Fed. Currently, Fed officials are highly divided on the policy path for 2026: ten hawkish members advocate no rate cuts or even hikes, while one dovish member supports significant rate cuts. Such divisions make market sentiment extremely sensitive. Any change in policy signals could trigger violent swings in the crypto market. For example, if more officials turn hawkish in the next meeting, Bitcoin could drop below 60,000; if they turn dovish, it could quickly rebound above 80,000. This uncertainty greatly increases trading difficulty and can lead to chasing rallies or panic selling.

Finally, my investment advice for 2026: adopt a "core + satellite" allocation strategy. Allocate 60%-70% of your core holdings to Bitcoin and Ethereum to hedge against market volatility; allocate 30%-40% to leading projects in the RWA track, Solana, and Sei ecosystems. Also, closely monitor Fed policy developments and core PCE data. Once signs of policy tightening appear, reduce positions immediately to avoid risks.

The 2026 crypto market is destined to be a year of "cognitive testing." Only by understanding the Fed's policy logic can you seize opportunities and avoid losses. Follow me—I'll provide weekly market analysis and monthly opportunity and risk summaries in 2026 to help you steadily profit in the crypto space. Follow me @OnChainBrother, so you won't get lost!