Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis Report as of December 29, 2025

1. Real-Time Price and Market Data

As of 06:08 today, BTC's latest price is approximately $87,500 (¥615,800), down slightly by 0.12% over the past 24 hours, with an amplitude of about 0.6% (highest ¥618,900, lowest ¥615,200) [ref_5]. Market capitalization is approximately $1.85 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of 194,400 coins, trading value of ¥119.72 billion, and a turnover rate of 0.97%, indicating light market activity [ref_5].

2. Core Market Drivers

Liquidity and Institutional Behavior: The Christmas holiday combined with year-end tax loss harvesting has led to continued weakening of market liquidity. Institutional deleveraging has caused BTC to remain in a range-bound oscillation [ref_1].

Options Expiry Impact: Over $23 billion worth of options contracts expired on December 25, suppressing directional bets and further exacerbating market stalemate [ref_4].

Traditional Market Divergence: The "Christmas rally" in US stocks and gold reaching historic highs (close to $4,500 per ounce), but BTC did not benefit simultaneously. The "digital gold" attribute has not attracted safe-haven funds [ref_4].

3. Technical Analysis

Support and Resistance: Short-term support levels are at $85,000–$85,500 (double bottom pattern + Fibonacci retracement levels), resistance at $88,000–$88,500 (recent rebound highs) [ref_2].

Trend Judgment: The daily chart remains in a consolidation zone, with MA5 and MA10 moving averages forming death crosses downward, and the price below the moving averages, indicating a generally bearish outlook; however, the MACD histogram's negative bars are shortening, suggesting a slight increase in bullish momentum [ref_10].

4. Trading Recommendations

Range Trading Strategy: Light short positions can be initiated on rebounds to the $88,500–$89,000 zone, with targets at $87,500–$86,500; light long positions can be taken on pullbacks to the $85,500–$86,000 zone, with targets at $87,000–$87,800 [ref_2].

Stop-Loss Settings: Long positions' stop-loss can be set below $83,200, short positions' stop-loss above $89,100 [ref_6].

5. Market Outlook

Unless there is significant news stimulus, BTC is likely to remain in a range of $85,000–$90,000 for the rest of the year [ref_1]. Long-term holders' selling pressure may be nearing an end, and current prices could be within a "value zone." In 2026, attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's policy shifts and spot ETF capital flows [ref_4].

(Note: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)

Recently, traditional markets and crypto markets have diverged significantly. Which asset class do you focus on more for year-end opportunities?