#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's pace of rate cuts has changed. The 25 basis point cut was in line with expectations, but once the dot plot was released, the forecast of only one rate cut next year was quite sobering—essentially, the rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end.

The key lies in Powell's shift in tone: from the previous "preemptive rate cuts" to now emphasizing a soft labor market but still high inflation, which is a justification for holding steady in the subsequent period. Goldman Sachs put it plainly— the end of preemptive rate cuts has arrived, and whether they can justify further cuts depends on whether employment data continues to worsen.

What is the practical impact on follow-along traders? This change in pace tests traders' style adaptability. Aggressive traders relying on loose liquidity may need to adjust their strategies, while more defensive traders focused on fundamentals might see a period of better performance. Bitcoin once surged to 94,000 and then retreated; volatility remains, but directional strength has weakened—this is the market digesting the signal that "the good times are over."

My advice is that if your follow-along portfolio includes accounts driven by macro liquidity, now is the time to carefully review their risk management logic. Strategies that thrived during the era of preemptive rate cuts may not withstand the shift in tightening expectations. Conversely, those who are accustomed to precise stop-losses amid volatility and avoid greed may become more stable follow targets moving forward.

Experience shows that changes in data often first reflect in the adjustments of skilled traders' positions.