Bitcoin's Bull Market Cycle: From Early Surge to the Institutional Era

The cryptocurrency market has witnessed the legendary journey of Bitcoin as a digital asset. Since its inception in 2009, this largest digital currency has experienced multiple spectacular bull cycles and correction phases. The 2024-25 crypto bull run is redefining Bitcoin’s investment narrative—from retail frenzy to a new phase led by institutional players.

Current Bitcoin: Institutional Entry Changes the Game

By the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has surged to $88,560, setting a new all-time high. The uniqueness of this bull market lies in its diversified catalysts: January SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, April’s fourth halving event, and potential favorable policy expectations.

Key Data Since 2024:

• Price increased from around $40,000 at the start of the year to $88,560 (121% increase)
• Cumulative net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2.8 billion, surpassing gold ETFs to become the most popular commodity ETF globally
• BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holds over 470,000 BTC, with institutional funds now the main market driver

This cycle is markedly different from previous ones. The 2017 bull run was driven by retail FOMO and ICO hype, whereas today’s rise is more rooted in systematic allocations by traditional financial institutions.

Understanding the Inner Logic of Bitcoin Bull Cycles

Halving Events and Supply Shocks

Bitcoin’s code is programmed to halve the mining reward every four years—reducing it by 50%. This mechanism creates natural scarcity on the supply side. Historical data shows:

• Post-2012 halving: +5,200%
• Post-2016 halving: +315%
• Post-2020 halving: +230%
• Post-2024 halving: ongoing upward trend

Halvings often start to influence prices 6-12 months before the event, as markets price in the scarcity expectations in advance.

Turning Points in Institutional Adoption

2020-2021 marked the beginning of a shift. Public companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla started to treat Bitcoin as a balance sheet asset. The approval of spot ETFs in 2024 institutionalizes this trend—allowing investors to access Bitcoin through familiar investment vehicles.

This removes the last barriers for traditional investors. No longer is there a need to open exchange accounts or worry about private key management; large asset management firms can now allocate Bitcoin just like gold or oil futures.

Recognizing Bull Market Signals: Technical Indicators and On-Chain Data

Early Technical Warnings

When Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaks above 70, it often signals the formation of a strong upward trend. The golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is another classic indicator—typically marking a trend shift from downtrend to uptrend.

Throughout the 2024 rally, these indicators have repeatedly signaled buy opportunities, laying the groundwork for accelerated gains.

On-Chain Data Revealing True Buying Power

• Exchange BTC Balances Decline: When large holders transfer funds from exchanges to personal wallets, it indicates confidence in higher prices ahead.
• Stablecoin Inflows Surge: Large inflows of USDC, USDT into exchanges signal market participants preparing to deploy capital.
• Whale Activity: Addresses holding over 1,000+ BTC have reached a record high of over 55 million addresses, indicating accumulation.

In 2024, all these indicators point in one direction—strong buying pressure.

Historical Perspective: Comparing Four Key Bull Cycles

2013: The Birth of a Bull Market

Bitcoin soared from $145 to $1,200 (+730%). This period was characterized by intense media attention and retail discovery. The Cyprus banking crisis made people realize Bitcoin’s value as an independent asset.

However, in the same year, Mt. Gox exchange was hacked, leading to a prolonged bear market. This crisis exposed the fragility of early ecosystems—lack of secure custody solutions made individual users hesitant to participate.

2017: Retail Frenzy and Aftermath

This bull run was entirely different. The ICO craze attracted millions of retail investors into crypto. Bitcoin surged from $1,000 to $20,000 (+1,900%), creating a lasting cultural phenomenon—“Do you have Bitcoin?” became a common street conversation.

But this FOMO-driven growth was unsustainable. Early 2018, regulatory pressures increased (notably China’s ban on ICOs), and the market plummeted 84%. This cycle proved how fragile a retail-dominated market can be.

2020-2021: Institutional Awakening

This was a true turning point. MicroStrategy, Square, Tesla, and others publicly announced Bitcoin holdings as reserve assets. It was not just buying but strategic asset allocation.

Institutional participation changed market dynamics. When giants like BlackRock or Grayscale entered, the withdrawal process was slower due to longer decision cycles. Bitcoin rose from $8,000 to $64,000 (+700%), characterized by sustainability—no vertical spikes like in 2017.

2024-2025: Institutionalization Accelerates

The approval of spot ETFs is a critical milestone. It transforms Bitcoin from an “alternative asset” into a “mainstream portfolio component.” This attracts new capital and boosts confidence among existing holders.

Meanwhile, potential political shifts (a new government more open to crypto) further reinforce market optimism. The result is a more balanced ascent—steady institutional buying combined with retail enthusiasm.

Potential New Drivers for the Next Bull Market

Government Reserves Strategies

Senators have proposed that the U.S. government consider acquiring 1 million BTC over five years as strategic reserves. What does this mean? A major traditional power recognizing Bitcoin as “digital gold” for value storage.

Case studies from small nations are inspiring. Bhutan holds over 13,000 BTC via its national investment fund, and El Salvador declared Bitcoin legal tender in 2021. If major economies follow suit, the impact on demand could be revolutionary.

Long-Term Significance of Technological Upgrades

Bitcoin is undergoing a significant code upgrade—re-enabling OP_CAT. This technology can facilitate second-layer scaling solutions on Bitcoin, theoretically increasing network throughput by dozens of times.

Once implemented, Bitcoin will not only be “digital gold” but also a platform for DeFi. This opens new application scenarios, attracting developers and innovators.

Expansion of ETF Ecosystem

Current spot Bitcoin ETFs are just the beginning. More variants are expected soon—leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, strategic Bitcoin ETFs, etc. Each new product will further reduce institutional participation costs and complexity.

How to Identify the Next Bull Run Start

Key Monitoring Indicators

1. Halving Schedule: The next halving is expected in 2028. Markets typically start pricing in this expectation about a year in advance.
2. Policy News: Watch for major government statements on Bitcoin reserves or crypto regulation.
3. Institutional Flows: Monitor ETF net inflow data—if monthly inflows suddenly accelerate, it often signals a new wave of upward movement.

Comprehensive On-Chain Signal Analysis

Avoid relying on a single indicator. Observe:

• Changes in BTC balances on exchanges
• Activity of large holders (1000+ BTC)
• New address creation rate
• On-chain transaction fee trends

When these signals align toward buying, a new cycle is likely beginning.

Practical Guide to Participating in the Next Bull Market

Establish a Clear Investment Framework

Before entering, ask yourself three questions:

1. What is my investment horizon? 1 year or 5 years?
2. What is my maximum tolerable loss?
3. Is my goal preservation, beating inflation, or high returns?

Different answers lead to different strategies. Long-term holders should prefer ETFs to avoid frequent trading. Short-term traders need a comprehensive risk management plan.

Diversification Is Key

Even if bullish on Bitcoin, do not allocate all funds to a single asset. Consider diversifying into other cryptocurrencies, traditional stocks, or bonds. A reasonable starting point is to keep crypto assets at 5-10% of your overall portfolio.

Prioritize Security

If you choose self-custody, hardware wallets are essential. If investing via exchanges or ETFs, select licensed, reputable, and secure platforms. Both approaches are valid—just match them to your risk tolerance.

Continuous Learning and Adaptation

Crypto markets evolve constantly. Rules from 2013 may not apply in 2017, and lessons from 2017 may not be relevant in 2024. Regularly read news, participate in community discussions, and keep learning.

Realistic Risk Assessment

No investment is risk-free. Bitcoin currently faces risks such as:

Market Risk: High volatility can lead to 50% or greater corrections. Such declines can panic many investors.

Regulatory Risk: Different jurisdictions have varying attitudes. Strict regulation could limit institutional participation and impact prices.

Technical Risk: Despite 15 years of secure operation, undiscovered vulnerabilities cannot be ruled out.

Macro Risk: Economic downturns, high-interest-rate environments, or financial crises could shift investor interest away from risk assets.

Recognizing these risks and preparing contingency plans are essential skills for professional investors.

Outlook: Bitcoin’s Future Role in the Financial System

Each bull cycle reshapes market perceptions of Bitcoin.

• 2013: Seen as an aggressive tech experiment
• 2017: Viewed as a quick wealth opportunity
• 2021: Recognized as a legitimate asset class
• 2024-2025: Part of the established financial ecosystem

In the next decade, Bitcoin’s story will shift from “Will it be recognized?” to “What role will it play in the entire financial system?” Will it be 10% of investment portfolios? Or, like gold, a routine item on every institutional balance sheet?

History shows each cycle introduces new participants, use cases, and narratives. Prepared investors will seize these opportunities; slow responders risk missing the next wealth transfer.

The next bull market won’t give advance notice. But if you understand the cycle’s internal logic, master the signals, and have a clear plan, when the opportunity arrives, you won’t be caught unprepared. That is the best preparation for the “crypto bull run.”