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Recently observed an interesting phenomenon: the energy-related sectors continue to rebound, especially renewable energy and underlying infrastructure projects showing significant gains. The logic behind this rally is worth dissecting.
The core is actually about anti-inflation. What does that mean? It means that various links in the industry chain are starting to jointly raise prices, aiming to improve supply and demand relationships, help companies escape low-profit difficulties, and accelerate the clearing of outdated capacities.
The current situation is as follows—upstream resource projects have already started to recover, midstream infrastructure projects' profits are gradually repairing, and downstream application layers may lag behind a bit. This time lag is where trading expectations lie.
Based on this logic, it is expected that the entire industry chain will see a performance turning point next year, with the likelihood of full profitability greatly increasing. Therefore, the current increase is more about speculating on this expectation; the actual performance validation will only be clear next year. In other words, the medium-term opportunity may not have been fully unleashed yet.
In addition, some Web3 infrastructure and on-chain application projects are also continuing to strengthen. Since last month, this has been the most persistent main theme in the market, with several consecutive days of collective acceleration in gains.
But I have a view—if you already hold positions, you can continue to wait, but entering now has little significance. Although the leading projects are still hitting new highs, the overall sector has already shown some divergence, and the risk of short-term correction is accumulating. In this strong market, if you can't buy at the front, projects further back often find it difficult to move independently during sector corrections.