#降息预期 Recently, I've been watching Bitcoin's price movement and noticed an interesting phenomenon—the market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations. From the rebound at the $80,000 correction point to now, the 200-day moving average slope has turned positive, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum has truly returned.

But there's a point worth pondering: rate cuts should be positive for the market, so why does the market's reaction seem somewhat "calm"? A closer look at the data reveals the answer—institutional investors have been continuously increasing their holdings (since December, smart wallets have accumulated an additional 42,565 Bitcoins), while retail investors are reducing their positions. This divergence clearly indicates that large funds are optimistic about the long-term trend, while small retail investors are troubled by short-term uncertainties.

The Federal Reserve's hint that it will only cut rates once next year indeed dampens risk assets somewhat. However, I believe this also highlights the limitations of the traditional financial system—policy adjustment space is limited, and so are the tools. This is precisely where the value of Web3 lies. Decentralized finance is not bound by the policies of a single central bank and can offer more flexible and transparent ways for value to flow.

In the short term, there may not be a "Christmas rally" as exciting, but in the long run, this macro backdrop actually strengthens my confidence in a decentralized future. True opportunities are often hidden in the cracks of uncertainty.