#降息预期 The Federal Reserve's "civil war" has escalated faster than expected. Looking at the chart patterns and Powell's tone adjustments, the rate cut expectations have shifted instantly from "continuous easing" to "high threshold, incremental assessment." This policy shift has a significant impact on trading rhythm.

What is the most critical change? The hawkish faction has gone from a minority to a powerful voice—Goolsbee wants to wait for data, Schmied keeps a close eye on inflation, and Powell emphasizes a restrictive stance... This means the certainty of future rate cuts has greatly diminished, and market expectations for the number of rate cuts next year will continue to be revised.

The impact on follow-trade strategies is directly reflected in two aspects:

**First, style switching.** In this policy environment, aggressive high-leverage traders may face drawdown risks, while prudent low-frequency traders may find more opportunities. Recently, I have been adjusting my position allocations, reducing the proportion of follow-trades on ultra-short-term aggressive accounts, and increasing focus on macro fundamentals. This is not to say that aggressive styles are unprofitable, but in periods of high uncertainty, win rate and drawdown ratio are more critical.

**Second, timing window.** The reversal of rate cut expectations usually signals a mid-term trend change, with significant short-term volatility. During such periods, I generally reduce the position size of individual follow-trades to allow for higher tolerance—better to live through the trend formation than to bet on the right direction prematurely.

In a data-dependent monetary policy environment with high information update frequency, risk management in follow-trades must be more meticulous. Stop-loss when needed, don’t fear missing out—another opportunity will always come.