#比特币价格预测 Seeing this wave of market correction dip back to 80,000 and then stabilize, I can't help but think of the big bear market in 2015. Back then, it was similar—initial rapid decline breaking through psychological support levels, followed by a slow recovery of fundamentals. When positive signals appeared from policy side, the entire market seemed to be activated.

This time, the Fed's rate cut expectations are priced in, which essentially means the liquidity environment is improving and this expectation is fermenting. The detail of the 200-day moving average turning positive is very important—I saw a similar pattern in 2017, when the market first moved out of the bottom range, then gradually accumulated strength, and finally made a surprising move. Currently, the confirmation of the dual signals from the 5-day and 200-day moving averages, along with the 52-week high resistance, suggests that, based on historical experience, a breakout often occurs after this kind of structural consolidation.

But I have to admit, Bitcoin price predictions are always a game of probabilities. In 2018, I saw many people get the direction right but miss the rhythm, even getting shaken out before reaching resistance levels. Now, what’s in front of us is a relatively healthy technical correction process, supported by liquidity expectations. But the real test lies with Powell—if he doesn’t signal hawkishness, this window can open. It’s similar to the rebound at the end of 2013, provided that the conditions are maintained.