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Moody's Chief Economist's latest forecast is intriguing: there will be rate cuts in 2026, but "patience is required." What's the underlying message? The traditional financial system no longer has the courage to aggressively address economic issues.
The inflation rate is stuck at 3%, and the economy is in the so-called "delicate balance"—in other words, policymakers are walking a tightrope. This cautious, gradual approach to rate cuts reveals not confidence, but a thorough understanding of the fragility of the entire financial system. They even have layers of defenses in place when trying to rescue the market, fearing that a misstep could burst some asset bubble.
For participants in the crypto market, this situation instead signals an opportunity.
When traditional monetary policy faces the paradox of "controlling inflation while preventing recession," Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins and algorithm-driven issuance mechanism become the most ruthless reflection of this policy wobble. Decision-makers are debating whether to cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, while another set of rules is already embedded in the genesis block—permanently unchangeable.
This offers some insights for participants:
First, let go of the obsession with "rate cuts to save the market." Don't treat every Federal Reserve decision as a revelation of salvation.
Second, allocate assets with transparent rules. Invest in core crypto assets that are not subject to central bank whims.
Third, observe market vacuums. When traditional financial markets fall into confusion due to policy hesitation, it is a critical window for deploying crypto assets.
The more patience the old system shows, the more reliable the new system appears. In an era where the gatekeepers are a hesitant few, the safest choice is that ark with built-in buoyancy.