2025-12-25 12:25:47

Bitcoin options expired at the end of last month, but the market did not experience the expected decline; instead, it may be brewing for a larger-scale adjustment. Currently, Bitcoin is defending the key price range of $70,000-$75,000. This calm may just be the prelude, and next month could see even more intense selling pressure.

From a timing perspective, the operational logic of institutions is becoming increasingly clear. Although early January's personnel appointments at the Federal Reserve Chair will become a hot topic in the market, this is often a routine tactic to cover for retail investors taking the bait. The real risk points come from three key dates: January 9th, when the tariff case opens; January 15th, when the Nasdaq may undergo policy adjustments; and January 28th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision meeting. Each of these could serve as a trigger for institutions to retreat in advance. Regardless of how these events unfold, the logic of big funds is simple—before certainty arrives, they will exit first.

The event on January 15th is arguably an epic bearish catalyst, and the market is likely to start brewing panic two weeks in advance. Meanwhile, economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls and CPI data released before the Fed meeting, although showing mixed signals, have already shattered retail investor confidence. The risk of a government shutdown has become the final straw, with political battles between the two parties directly evolving into systemic market risks.

Looking back at the huge black swan event in October, the overall market trading volume has significantly declined. What does this indicate? Those institutions that needed to run have already done so, and those facing bankruptcy are also in liquidation. Market makers' liquidity has dried up, and even the once-glamorous big players are silent. This round of sell-off is unlikely to be as gentle as retail investors imagine. As long as the U.S. government continues to operate amid such uncertainty, a genuine rebound in the market will be difficult. Wall Street will not give any chance for accidents to happen.

BTC-0.13%

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LightningAllInHero

· 10h ago

Institutions are acting up again, and retail investors just have to take the hit, right? --- Same old story, run away first and then talk, we are at the bottom. --- Really? Is it going to collapse on January 15? I haven't added to my position yet. --- What does the decline in trading volume indicate? It means big players have already exited. --- I've heard a hundred times that Wall Street isn't giving opportunities, haha. --- Liquidity exhaustion... this is a sign of an impending dump. --- How long can the 70,000 defense line hold? It feels like it's about to break. --- One set after another, political party struggles evolving into systemic risk, outrageous. --- Isn't it obvious that retail investor confidence is collapsing? Who dares to get in now? --- On January 28, the Federal Reserve, and it will be another bloody storm.

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StakeHouseDirector

· 10h ago

It's happening again, this time it's our retail investors at the bottom. Institutions have already quietly slipped away, and we're still holding on at the 70,000 price level. Laughable. Will it really crash on January 15? It feels like every time they say that, but nothing happens. Liquidity has dried up completely. What's the point of still playing? Better to exit early. Anyway, reduce your holdings by half to protect yourself. They're definitely planning a big move.

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OnchainDetective

· 10h ago

Institutions have long run away, and retail investors are still sleepwalking --- Once again covering for the buy-in, I'm really exhausted --- If 75,000 can't hold, it's really over, feeling like it's going to break --- On January 15th, we need to get serious, a historic level of trap --- Market makers have no liquidity? Then a big dump isn't far away --- The game played by Wall Street guys, we can never beat it --- Rather than waiting for a rebound, it's better to run first, political risks are too high --- Silent big investors are the most terrifying, it means something big is coming --- The US government shutdown directly becomes a systemic risk, impressive --- This wave won't be gentle, who still thinks of a slow decline?

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GhostAddressMiner

· 10h ago

I have already checked the decline data of on-chain transaction volume this month, and it is indeed strange... Those large wallet addresses have long started transferring to cold wallets, and you just can't see it. Institutions are playing this game, creating noise to let retail investors take the bait. The real escape pods have been prepared long ago. January 15th was the likely trigger, but panic sentiments had already shown signs on the chain two weeks in advance. The flow of several abnormal addresses I tracked all pointed in the same direction. I agree with the statement that market makers are experiencing liquidity exhaustion, but even more outrageous is that those dormant wallets have recently shown signs of awakening. That is the real risk signal. History always repeats itself, only the participants have changed their identities.

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BlockchainBouncer

· 10h ago

Hmm... It looks like the big institutions are playing that game again, while retail investors are still foolishly buying in. --- Those few points in January were indeed dangerous, but calling it an epic level of negative news might be an exaggeration. --- The decline in trading volume best explains the situation; smart money has already exited. --- Basically, it's waiting for the uncertainty to pass. Entering now is just giving away money. --- If this round of dumping really happens, retail investors are probably going to lose again. Prepare your coins. --- The key factor is still the political game in the US, which directly determines the market's ceiling. --- If the 70,000-75,000 level can't be held, it's dangerous. The problem is, liquidity is already gone. --- The institutional logic is simple: run first out of respect, since if there's uncertainty, just withdraw. --- It feels like a strong wave might really come next month. Staying on the sidelines now is the right move. --- The phrase "Wall Street doesn't give opportunities for things to go wrong" is well said; they always stay one step ahead of the market.

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