Many people ask why rebounds are more likely during the Spring Festival. In fact, there is a certain pattern behind this.

Looking at historical data, the true top of a bull market does not happen overnight. To confirm a complete top, it usually takes 3 to 6 months of comprehensive verification, and conclusions should not be drawn based on a single high point.

Now, it is the 20th month after the halving, and the time has come to December 2025, which coincides with a critical observation period. Whether the market will turn bearish in 2026 depends on three factors: first, whether there is a trend of tightening global liquidity; second, whether regulatory authorities will implement a round of structural adjustments; third, whether market leverage has already accumulated excessively.

If you really want to find the clearest signal window, it is recommended to focus on the closing performance of the Q1 seasonal line in 2026. This period often provides a more definitive cycle transition signal, which is much more reliable than simply looking at short-term fluctuations.