Recently, I've been pondering a question: why do some people "buy and then fall, sell and then rise"? It's not bad luck, but rather because they fail to see the invisible capital game within the market. Today, I want to explain this logic thoroughly.

**The Psychological Battle Driven by Capital**

Trends never appear out of nowhere; they always originate from capital flows, which are driven by human nature's repeated patterns. Let's consider a real scenario:

At the bottom, the coin price keeps declining, and retail investors are scared and sell off directly, fearing total loss. Just at this moment, those seasoned institutions or veterans quietly start their布局. They are patient and intentionally let the price fluctuate within a certain range, gradually shaking out the small retail holders' chips. When most of the indecisive holders are shaken out, a sudden surge with high volume shoots the price up—this is the wave of market movement you missed.

Reaching the top is another story. When the coin price rises to an eye-catching level, late-coming retail investors can no longer resist the temptation, and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) drives them to rush in. By this time, smart money has already sold in batches. Even if positive news floods in and the sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, the big funds have already exited gracefully, leaving only stagnation or even a sharp decline in price.

The key point here is: the formation of a trend requires a process (accumulation or distribution) to truly爆发. Many people only focus on candlestick patterns but fail to understand the story behind the volume and chip flow—this is why they fall into traps.

**A Bottom Line in Trading**

My personal methodology is simple: only trade those trends that have already been clearly confirmed, never try to guess bottoms or tops. Behind this approach are two practical mental principles— but that topic deserves a dedicated discussion, so I’ll leave it here for today.

The crucial thing to understand is: the market always repeats this script, and what you need to do is wait until the trend is truly formed before taking action, rather than being driven by emotions.