#通胀压力 Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year? I read this statement and feel the market is starting to speculate again.

Let's start with reality: inflationary pressures are still there. Weak wage growth sounds good, but it actually indicates the economy is weakening. A rate cut sounds like good news, but you need to think carefully—what does a rate cut usually mean? Excess liquidity, rising asset prices, new retail investors rushing in to buy in.

Having been in this market for so many years, the biggest fear is the appearance of signals that are "policy-friendly." Every wave of rate cuts is a golden period for project teams to raise funds and for big players to build positions aggressively. At that time, you'll see "hundredfold potential coins," various gold-throwing games, and DeFi mining making a comeback. On the surface, it's positive, but in reality, it's a prelude to the next round of harvesting.

Although there are signs of easing inflation, don't be fooled by the numbers. The real risk has never been in macro data but in people's minds—everyone is thinking "money will depreciate, hurry up and invest," which makes it the easiest time to get caught in a trap.

My simple advice: when rate cuts come, stay firm on your bottom line. Look carefully at the project's true cash flow, stay away from those supported only by stories and expectations. History will repeat itself, but the ones who make money are never the followers, but those who remain calm amid the frenzy.