Although the Christmas atmosphere is still lingering at the end of the year, the crypto market's momentum is cooling down. BTC repeatedly confirmed between 86k and 88k, retracing from the previous high of 126k, and this year has barely achieved a negative return. Not to mention those small altcoins—50% drops are considered lucky, most have already been wiped out completely.

It sounds like a bull market led by institutions is coming, but in reality, retail investors have been the biggest victims of overvalued tokens and leverage. This round of market activity may seem grand, but the retail traders are being thoroughly cut.

However, the real signals worth paying attention to are a few hard indicators. First, the US GENIUS Act has passed, finally opening the door to compliance for stablecoins. The market’s stablecoin market cap has already surpassed 300 billion+, with products like USDC becoming mainstream payment tools. Institutions are truly absorbing these assets on a large scale—not just hype, but driven by actual demand.

Looking at RWA (Real-World Assets), the tokenization of government bonds and funds has exceeded 30 billion. Major players like BlackRock and Circle are not just riding the trend—they are genuinely bringing liquidity in.

The lessons from the recent months are worth reflecting on: stop chasing narratives. Retail investors are most likely to fall into traps by following concept tokens, ending up being harvested by high FDV and derivatives. Stablecoins and RWA, which generate real cash flow and have a solid compliance foundation, are the true support.

DeFi is also changing. Ethena’s TVL has been halved, and yields in the DeFi ecosystem are declining, indicating that high APY is no longer the golden rule. When macro interest rates change, those seemingly attractive high yields evaporate. This reminds everyone not to blindly trust numbers; the underlying logic and risks are always the top priority.

AI and crypto still remain hot topics. Proxy tokens and decentralized infrastructure occasionally produce breakout hits. But frankly, most projects are destined to go to zero.

Looking ahead to 2026, the market most wants to see not just concepts flying everywhere, but real adoption. Low-liquidity holiday market conditions are easily amplified by options expiration, and most institutions predict BTC will rebound, but don’t expect the same crazy rally as last time. Large asset managers like VanEck and Galaxy are betting on the expansion of stablecoins and DeFi, and privacy coins may also rise.

The most important thing in trading remains the old adage: risk control discipline is more valuable than any strategy.